Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Intrade beats Zogby in predicting McCain as the Florida winner

on election eve. It turns out that Zogby was calling a statistical dead heat between McCain and Romney, given it's stated standard error rate, so Intrade wins this round.

Also, after these 9 head-to-head contests, the average Intrade election eve predicted winner percentage is 65%. My hypothesis that Intrade's winning percentage will converge with it's average election eve percentage.


Wins Losses Ties Pct Contender

3 2 4 0.556 Intrade
2 3 4 0.444 Zogby


Score Date
State Party Intrade Zogby Winner

3-2-4 29-Jan
FL Rep McCain 2-way-tie McCain
2-2-4 26-Jan
SC Dem Obama Obama Obama
2-2-3 19-Jan
SC Rep McCain McCain McCain
2-2-2 19-Jan
NV Dem Obama Clinton Clinton
2-1-2 15-Jan
MI Rep McCain 2-way tie Romney
2-0-2 8-Jan
NH Dem Obama Obama Clinton
2-0-1 8-Jan
NH Rep McCain McCain McCain
2-0-0 3-Jan
IA Dem Obama 3-way tie Obama
1-0-0 3-Jan
IA Rep Huckabee 2-way tie Huckabee

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