Tuesday, January 22, 2008

2-2-3: Zogby poll predicts Nevada outcome better than Intrade contracts


Wins Losses Ties Pct Contender

2 2 3 0.500 Intrade
2 2 3 0.500 Zogby

Score Date
State Party Intrade Zogby Winner

2-2-3 19-Jan
SC Rep McCain McCain McCain
2-2-2 19-Jan
NV Dem Obama Clinton Clinton
2-1-2 15-Jan
MI Rep McCain 2-way tie Romney
2-0-2 8-Jan
NH Dem Obama Obama Clinton
2-0-1 8-Jan
NH Rep McCain McCain McCain
2-0-0 3-Jan
IA Dem Obama 3-way tie Obama
1-0-0 3-Jan
IA Rep Huckabee 2-way tie Huckabee

The election eve odds are here. I've revised the tiebreakers, though, having done them after a long day out of town while experiencing a caffeine crash.

The method for measuring predictiveness:
1. Look at the highest value Intrade contract and the highest Zogby poll (beyond error rate) to determine each source's predicted winner of a state contest

2. If neither Intrade nor Zogby predicts the winner, the candidate with the higher value between Intrade and Zogby (beyond the Zogby error rate) will win that contest.

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