![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh44u9NeiqALLLX_PBWG2sA9I-q8BKrHeSeekzqiR-Utw7BuMw3WwJtK9-FwWv-6KWW3XmKKO1B8sH3gCUq0ctnhkPpiuoEFR95x_G765KDGoTkFVGpfVjYUHpRC-mfNz6CV2PA/s320/unemployment.recession.jpg)
Of course, all this could be a warmup for Bush's last State of the Union address.
Here's the latest Intrade recession chart:
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgRFsqpDUar-xRxzsz6C39NMfSU0jDV9c2QZr4GXsl5TAGB5DCSt4ULfy5Tkx2YNmQZ7T8k9p7uePbuPVMl-VHcJ0QNYaO8s4auZOU-9fS-s8nHYQOU1BbtmY3IRceE_nttPeWw/s400/recession.080128.png)
DISCLOSURE: I am short US.RECESSION.08
UPDATE: Greg Mankiw links to another Kane paper, which focuses on unemployment insurance predictiven power of coming recession, and which is currently pricing a 35.5% chance for recession.
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