Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Dem Value/Sleeper Plays

Unfortunately, my original post was accidentally deleted as I was allowing pop-ups to run spell check so my analysis will not be as in-depth.

Dem Value Play:

NM-01.HOUSE.DEM This race has pitted Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid against incumbent Republican Heather Wilson. Early polling had Wilson up but has since reversed and is trending to Madrid who now has the lead. This district went for Kerry 51/48 in 2004 and with Madrid last trading at 44 and Wilson at 30; this is a toss-up race/lean dem that is also a strong value.

Dem Sleeper Play:

NV.GOVERN06.DEM The incumbent Republican Guinn is no longer running for office and this pits Republican Jim Gibbons vs. Democrat Dina Titus. Gibbons has had a lead in every poll except for a recent Zogby Interactive poll where he was trailing by 1% pt. What makes this race interesting is that Gibbons has not received Guinn's direct endorsement and his lead is now within the margin of error according to a recent Rasmussen poll with Gibbons lead of only 2% points. His lead has been shrinking steadily and this state went for Bush 50/48 in 2004. Right now Titus last traded at 25 vs. Gibbons at 75. This could be an upset that would return nicely.

UPDATE: Robert Novak has surprisingly included FL-16 as a GOP retention in his final outlook, which just so happens to be my sleeper pick for the GOP.

Full Disclosure: I do not own the above stated positions, my money got taken from me in the infamous DOW -50 close glitch.

Clarification: I had originally posted this on the first attempt before I accidentally deleted it. There are two main theories about the election: 1) there will be a Democratic "wave" or 2) the GOP still has a shot at keeping both Houses. The above picks try to keep both theories in mind, that in a close race either has a shot at going to the Dems. I personally subscribe to theory #2; however, if there is a wave these races are definately in play, and NM-1 is a key race for both parties.

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