Tuesday, November 07, 2006

Check out Midas Oracle, Prediction Markets Blog, if you haven't yet

I've been crazy busy, and should have blogrolled my good friend Chris Masse's new joint venture a month ago. Chris is the subject matter expert for prediction markets.

The latest link is relevant to today's election, and those handicapping with the help of exit poll data:

Biased And Inaccurate Predictions Have Led To Poor GOP Exit Poll Showings In Past Three National Election

UPDATE: Another nice link from Midas Oracle, to OpinionJournal's John Fund reporting on how exit poll reporting will have reduced bias. It starts:

This year the networks say they are guarding their exit poll results as if they were crown jewels. The results will be delivered to a "quarantine room," access to which will be granted to only two staffers from each network and wire service, who must surrender all cell phones, BlackBerrys and similar devices before entering the room. Such precautions are designed to prevent preliminary results, often wrong in 2000 and 2004, from being posted on Web sites like the Drudge Report.

Only at 5 p.m. will the occupants of the quarantine room be allowed to reveal the exit polls to their bosses. The networks claim to have completely revamped their exit-poll methodology, which in 2004 had surveys in which the results, collected mostly by female graduate students, consistently favored Democrats. The changes will mean the networks will be slower to call the winners. That and the difficulty of adjusting for the large number of absentee ballots could mean a longer night than usual.

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