Tuesday, August 15, 2006

PPI data kills more bears today

PPI (MoM) 0.1%; Ex-Food & Energy (MoM) -0.3%

I begged, begged you bears to reconsider. SPX futures trading up 9 handles at 8:33am EST.

UPDATE: CPI data also indicates benign inflation (MoM) 0.4%; Ex-Food & Energy (MoM) 0.2%. SPX futures trading up another 6 handles at 8:31am EST. The market is pricing in a 30% chance of one more 25 basis point FOMC hike in 2006. From the WSJ today (subscription required):

WASHINGTON -- Higher energy prices pushed U.S. consumer prices higher in July but underlying inflation came in below expectations, breaking a string of four-straight elevated readings due to a steep slide in clothing prices.

Meanwhile, home construction retreated for the fifth time in six months during July as sliding sales and rising inventories turn builders more conservative.

Coming on the heels of a surprisingly restrained report on July producer prices, the consumer price data should provide some comfort to Federal Reserve officials that inflationary pressures aren't taking a significant hold in the economy, though they remain a risk.

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