I am still thinking that most people are underestimating the chances of a Republican President (the ascendancy of John McCain is starting to reverse this tendency), noting that #2 and #4 are working for my view, but #3 is working against it, at least at the moment.
2. Party disunity predicts an electoral loss
3. Signs that the election will center around the economy help the Democrats. Signs that the economy will focus on foreign policy help the Republicans.
4. When a woman or an African-American or a former first Lady is running for President, that is a huge issue in the minds of voters, whether anyone admits it or not
DISCLOSURE: I am long PRESIDENT.REP2008
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