2-2-3: Zogby poll predicts Nevada outcome better than Intrade contracts

Standings
Wins	Losses	Ties	Pct	Contender
2	2	3	0.500	Intrade
2	2	3	0.500	Zogby

Score	Date		State	Party	Intrade	Zogby	Winner
2-2-3	19-Jan		SC	Rep	McCain	McCain	McCain
2-2-2	19-Jan		NV	Dem	Obama	Clinton	Clinton
2-1-2	15-Jan		MI	Rep	McCain	2-way tie	Romney
2-0-2	8-Jan		NH	Dem	Obama	Obama	Clinton
2-0-1	8-Jan		NH	Rep	McCain	McCain	McCain
2-0-0	3-Jan		IA	Dem	Obama	3-way tie	Obama
1-0-0	3-Jan		IA	Rep	Huckabee	2-way tie	Huckabee

The election eve odds are here. I've revised the tiebreakers, though, having done them after a long day out of town while experiencing a caffeine crash.

The method for measuring predictiveness:
1. Look at the highest value Intrade contract and the highest Zogby poll (beyond error rate) to determine each source's predicted winner of a state contest

2. If neither Intrade nor Zogby predicts the winner, the candidate with the higher value between Intrade and Zogby (beyond the Zogby error rate) will win that contest.