Finding the bottom of the stock market

Back on November 12, I called for a 10-20% drop from our October highs, and some smart people disagreed with me.

We are now 13% below. S&P500 fell below 1350, and Dow below 12300.


I hope that the bottom is not lower than 20%. That would mean we are not even halfway to the bottom yet. I've been starting to buy some distressed companies, but am leaving most of my powder dry until I have some confidence that we have hit bottom.

The graph I provided above is a 3 month view from Yahoo. Here is the 5 year, which is not so reactionary:



UPDATE: Arnold Kling isn't too worried in the long run, either.