Originally from the pit at Tradesports(TM) (RIP 2008) ... on trading, risk, economics, politics, policy, sports, culture, entertainment, and whatever else might increase awareness, interest and liquidity of prediction markets
Monday, April 26, 2010
Brendan Moynihan points out that many financial disasters were predicated
His evidence includes the S&L Crisis (Altman's conclusion that BBB- paper yielded greater returns for the same risk as A bonds), Long Term Capital (Nobel Award to Merton and Scholes), and CDOs (Li's Gaussian copula).
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