Wednesday, April 02, 2008

Are banks, down from $100 to $65, heading ...

down to $32, or back up to $100?

I think they head down to $50-55, before getting back up to $70-80. We're only in the 6th inning of the credit crisis.

On the other hand, the stock market correction might be over, i.e. we've hit the bottom in March, and will not make new lows. I'd give 3-to-2 odds on that. Not that I think stocks will appreciate much in the next quarter, given the continued writedowns I'm predicting in the financial sector.

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