No hint of recession in the first quarter of 2008!

Real GDP for Jan-Mar 2008 was reported to be 0.6% (annualized). This means that the traditional definition of two consecutive quarters of declining real GDP has only the second-third or the third-fourth quarters as timeframes to possibly declare recession in 2008.

Of course, this is the preliminary report, and 2 revisions will be reported in May and June.

And yes, I know there are plenty of government statistics conspiracy theorists out there that exclude any reported data that does not support their theses. My usual response to them: Yes, the government data is noisy, incomplete, and filled with artifacts of error, but can you show me your indicators which are superior to the government data? (Silence and blank stares usually follow).

Here is the last 24 hours of trading of the 2008 Recession contract at Intrade, the huge sell off occurring after the 8:30 am report a few minutes ago:
DISCLOSURE: I am short US.RECESSION.08