Thursday, February 21, 2008

I disagree with Calculated Risk that unemployment claims suggest recession

CR makes it's case here, and provides the following graph:


But when I look at the graph, it looks like the 350,000 level was breached in every year on the graph except 1999 and 2000, which I would argue are the most distortionary years on the graph, due to the height of the tech bubble.

DISCLOSURE: I am short US.RECESSION.08

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