Is the Bernanke Put in force?

The Bernanke Put is a conceptual extension of the Greenspan Put, which refers to the former chairman's predilection for easing money whenever trouble or even just storm clouds appeared on the financial market horizon. (Apparently, Greenspan gets up to $150,000 per speaking engagement these days, so Ben ought to respond to such incentives as well).

When the Fed cut their target rate by 50 basis points, it seemed like a "one and done". I was one of the lone voices in the wilderness thinking a 25 bp increase was better for the long term, but as a person employed in a sector where layoffs and pay cuts are imminent, I am guilty of protesting little.

Now, the market is expecting another 25 bp cut when the FOMC announces on Oct 31. Using Fed funds futures data, the probability of a 25 bp cut have increased from 38% to 72% in the last 48 hours. Bernanke & Co. seem to be citing domestic uncertainty as the largest factor, ahead of inflation (which is low), a weakening US Dollar and other international forces.

I think this contract is priced pretty close to October 16th's fair value, although it's not trading liquid: