Tuesday, November 02, 2010

Intrade and Nate Silver have both increased their predicted House GOP seats

Since yesterday, Five Thirty Eight is up 1 seat to 233 (as of Nov 1) while Intrade is up 1 seat to 240 right now using 60+ and 65+ midprices.

In presidential election years (e.g. 2008, 2004) we can see some volatility--or greater uncertainty, perhaps due to biased media reporting of early exit polling--in the Intrade futures prices, so I've decided not to print those.  I am not sure if this is as true in non-presidential election years, but I would rely less on today's predictions than yesterday's.

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