Monday, November 01, 2010

Intrade now predicting that the Democrats will seat less than 51 senators


The main reasons for this deterioration seem to be the Nevada and Illinois races, where Democrats once had the lead and now Republicans are the clear frontrunners.

My hypothesis for these next 24 hours is that Intrade's US Senate majority contracts will trade in line with the abovementioned states, plus Colorado candidates' contracts, which is another tight race.

In the House, Intrade is now predicting that the GOP will seat 238 Representatives, up 3 over the weekend, based on the 60+ and 65+ contracts.  Nate Silver holding firm at 232 seats (as of Oct 31) and predicts the Democrats will retain 52 Senate seats.

UPDATE: Intrade predicting to 239 GOP seats, up another seat in the last 4 hours, as of noontime today.

UPDATE: Please see Justin's comments, which led to a headline correction, and also pointed me at the Washington senate race. Serves me right for not paying close attention.

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