Nate Silver is predicting that the GOP will hold 227 seats (as of Oct 15) in the House after the upcoming midterm elections.
On the other hand, Intrade is predicting 234 seats*. I've put on a bet last week (with my favorite Harvard physicist) that Intrade will be more predictive than Silver. I pay if the GOP wins less than 229 seats.
*Midprice on the 55+ contract is 57.9 and 39 for the 60+ contract.
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