Tuesday, September 28, 2010

Superbowl Futures

Back in the day of Tradesports, I used to publish conditional probabilities of Superbowl and conference championship contracts.

I miss talking about sports in general, and football in particular, with the guys in "The Pit" (Tradesports' chat), so I figured it might be fun to do something during football season, like simulate trading Matchbook Superbowl futures.

Here are the current Matchbook odds (using mid prices):

Green Bay 11%
Indianapolis 10%
New Orleans 9%
Pittsburgh 8%
Baltimore 7%
New York (A) 7%
New England 6%
Dallas 6%
Atlanta 5%

Philadelphia 4%
Chicago 3%
Cincinnati 3%
Minnesota 3%
Miami 3%
Tennessee 3%
Houston 2%

I'm going to buy Pittsburgh (paying 1050), Tennessee (paying 3400), Atlanta (paying 1800), and  Kansas City (paying 4000).

I'm going to sell New Orleans (paying 1150), Baltimore (paying 1500), and my beloved New England (paying 1750).

These will be equal weightings, and I'll rebalance occasionally through the season.

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