Monday, January 26, 2009

It matters little if you are right about a topic

but you lose money. That's why John Paulson is king of the world (for now).

UPDATE: Via Eddy Elfenbein:

Well, Dr. Doom has predicting disaster for several years now, and what we're seeing now isn't quite what Schiff predicted. Jonas Elmerraji of the Rhino Stock Report writes:

While Schiff has proved himself as an economist, his ability to parlay those predictions into profits for his clients was questionable for 2008. For the last few years, he’s been betting big on overseas investments and precious metals – two areas that got hit as hard or harder than the S&P last year.

Mish breaks it down in list form:

12 Ways Schiff Was Wrong in 2008

* Wrong about hyperinflation
* Wrong about the dollar
* Wrong about commodities except for gold
* Wrong about foreign currencies except for the Yen
* Wrong about foreign equities
* Wrong in timing
* Wrong in risk management
* Wrong in buy and hold thesis
* Wrong on decoupling
* Wrong on China
* Wrong on US treasuries
* Wrong on interest rates, both foreign and domestic

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