Intrade vs. the polls

Four-and-a-half years ago, I did some work on the predictiveness of polls versus prediction futures; specifically, Zogby versus Intrade during the presidential primaries.  I found the pollster to not only be less predictive, but that its data coverage and timeliness to be lacking, against the continual trading and pricing features of Intrade.

While my new job has kept me from choosing a different pollster to measure against Intrade (back then, I thought about Rasmussen, but I think now it might have been FiveThirtyEight)*, I've been checking out the action on Intrade's Obama Ohio futures trading throughout the day.

While Romney has a mathematical shot at winning the election while losing Ohio, I think that scenario is highly unlikely.  As you can see, it looks like Ohio is slipping away from him.

May the odds be ever in your candidates' favor.

*As of 740pm EST, Rasmussen is calling "Obama: 237 - Romney: 206 - Toss-up: 95" while Nate Silver forecasts "Obama: 313 - Romney: 225".  As far as Ohio goes, FiveThirtyEight is saying its 91% for Obama, while Rasmussen says 49% vs 49%.

Intrade futures after the first 2012 presidential debate

I will not be watching any of the debates, save the VP debate next week.  However, I read up a bit, and this one was my favorite, although it did bring to mind:  who fact checks the fact checkers?

Overall, President Obama's odds moved back closer to parity.  Here is the 60-day chart of how he's traded at Intrade:

and here is the less liquid, but well correlated Ohio prediction futures contract:

I guess that polling data surfacing over the next week will impact prices further, viewership for the second debate will be higher, and Obama, having digested some much needed humble pie, will perform better.

Romney is still trailing far behind.  Should he overtake in not only Ohio, but also Florida and Virginia and one other state where Obama is polling better, he can win the thing.  My gut tells me that Virginia will be the toughest--lots of wealthy government elites live in the northern part of the state, and they will be voting for the incumbent for sure.

South Carolina GOP primary

Both Intrade and Rasmussen have Newt Gingrich to win the SC primary.

I am still waiting for the prediction market and the pollster to differ.

New Hampshire GOP primary

Both Intrade and Rasmussen have predicted a Romney victory.

Hoping for a tighter race soon.

Intrade vs. Rasmussen

Four years ago, I tracked the head-to-head predictiveness of the Intrade futures market as compared to the Zogby pollster.

This election year, I will compare Intrade to Rasmussen.  Both have Romney taking Iowa tomorrow.

Obama's relection odds stablizing

Source here.

I'm still mourning the Gingrich fade, the lost entertainment value of the debates.  If Obama can stomp Hillary, I predict he will liquify Romney.

Last 6 months of Romney GOP nomination trading from Intrade

Source here.

Not surprising, but I was really hoping for the entertainment value of Obama-Gingrich debates.

I've stopped hoping for much leadership from the White House.

Quotes of the day

We want social returns, as well as financial ones. When you look at the major financial institutions, you have to realize there is greed involved.--Sister Nora, the Sisters of St. Francis

I completely agree, Sister Nora, but greed also infects non-financial institutions, including governments and charities and church.--Cav (who may have more cross-institutional experience than Sister Nora)

Jay-Z is releasing a new line of T-shirts in support of the Occupy Wall Street movement Friday via his Rocawear clothing label, but he doesn't plan to share any of the profits with the protesters.--Kimberly Nordyke

There are all sorts of forms of honest grafts that congressmen engage in that allow them to become very, very wealthy. So it's not illegal, but I think it's highly unethical, I think it's highly offensive, and wrong.
...
For example insider trading on the stock market. If you are a member of Congress, those laws are deemed not to apply.
...
They do. The fact is, if you sit on a healthcare committee and you know that Medicare, for example, is-- is considering not reimbursing for a certain drug that's market moving information. And if you can trade stock on-- off of that information and do so legally, that's a great profit making opportunity. And that sort of behavior goes on.
...
It's really the way the rules have been defined. And the people who make the rules are the political class in Washington. And they've conveniently written them in such a way that they don't apply to themselves.
...

If you were a senator, Steve, and I gave you $10,000 cash, one or both of us is probably gonna go to jail. But if I'm a corporate executive and you're a senator, and I give you IPO shares in stock and over the course of one day that stock nets you $100,000, that's completely legal. And former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her husband have participated in at least eight IPOs. --Peter Schweizer

All of a sudden [a congressman] from a background maybe in law, maybe in some other unrelated business area, all of a sudden is picking winners and losers in the market.--Jack Abramoff, disgraced Washington lobbyist

How then can we explain the high and persistent levels of long-term unemployment during this recession? One clearly important factor is the extension in July of 2010 of unemployment insurance to cover workers who have been out of work for 99 weeks instead of having their payments end after 6 months of unemployment. Studies have shown that many unemployed find jobs just about when their unemployment payments expire, after 6 months of collecting benefits under the old system. It does not require any complicated economic analysis to conclude that the extension of unemployment payments to 99 weeks will encourage many individuals to remain unemployed after 6 months of unemployment, although they would have found jobs under the old rules. They will turn down jobs that may not be as good as those they had before becoming unemployed in order to continue to collect unemployment benefits. For that reason I opposed the extension to 99 weeks in my post on 7/25/2010 Should Unemployment Compensation be Extended?.
...
Long-term unemployment may also partly be the result of uneven employment opportunities and uneven prospects for housing prices in different states and regions of the US. States like California, Nevada, and Florida that had major construction, jobs, and housing booms in the years before the onset of the recession suffered the largest hits to employment and to housing prices. Unemployed workers in such states may be reluctant to move to states where more jobs are available at good wages since they may be involved in foreclosure litigation and other issues related to the depressed housing market. They may also turn down jobs that pay much less then the unusually good wages they had during the boom times to continue to collect unemployment benefits for up to 2 years.
...
Other factors are also involved in the sharp rise in the number of workers unemployed for over 6 months. Yet overall they do not justify the conclusion that many unemployed individuals are unable to find jobs because the American economy has too little demand for their set of skills.--Gary Becker

We're running out of guys there [in the defensive secondary]. [College quarterback and NFL receiver Julian Edelman] stepped in and made a nice hit there and a made a nice tackle on [LaDainian] Tomlinson. You never know. It's a long season. We have a lot of games left. Who knows who will be playing where, but I know one thing: These guys are tough, mentally and physically. They'll stand up to the challenge and give their best. That counts for a lot. The game's not too big for them.--Bill Belichick

There’s so many things I’ve learned from him over the years about mental toughness. His ability to stay even-keeled through the wins and the losses. I remember the year that we went undefeated, you never would have thought we were undefeated. You would have thought we were 0-16 the way that he coached us. The last two weeks have been rough, but he never lost faith in us or confidence in what we were doing. He just said ‘Look we just gotta do better.’ He doesn’t ride those highs and lows and he comes in every week with a goal in mind. All the guys who play for him really appreciate that and appreciate his consistency and appreciate the way that he listens to the team as well.--Tom Brady

How Muhammad Wilkerson doesn't get that [dropped] ball is beyond me. For Brady to go in there and fight for that ball was a great sign of how tough that guy is. I know what goes on in those piles. It's a dark place. A lot of things are done I can not speak of. Kudos to Brady.--Tedy Bruschi

Victories since Oct. 23: Tebow 3, Tom Brady/Michael Vick/Philip Rivers (combined) 2.--Peter King

Historically, investors have assumed 25% to 30% of student loans bundled into their bonds will default. But today they are baking in between 30% and 40% default rates among the current crop of graduates, said Chris Haid, a director in asset backed trading at Barclays Capital. Even those assumptions are a best guess and defaults could ultimately go higher if unemployment rises, Mr. Haid said. This analysis translates into some surprising insights for students and policy makers. For example, in the current economy, it may make more sense to enter a technical college than to go to law school. Not all lessons from the bond market are so counterintuitive. The most important, in fact, is a slight twist on a maxim most students know from childhood: stay in school, just not too long.
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In recessions, law school graduates have a harder time finding work than other graduates from professional programs and are more likely to default on their student loans.--Matt Wirz

When you see a guy in a loan made in 2005 that is still in school, you throw that away.--Rubin Bahar

I’m amazed that in a park full of revolutionaries, there are large contingents that can’t throw away their own trash.--Jordan McCarthy, a member of the protesters’ sanitation team

I am amazed that she is amazed.--Cav

Photo links here and here.

Chart of the day: Herman Cain's Intrade pricing history

Source here.

UPDATE:  Megan has a nice brief on Cain's 9-9-9 tax plan.

Romney, Perry, and Christie trading at Intrade

Source here.

Some interesting takes on Romney. David Brooks thinks:

It’s exciting to have charismatic leaders. But often the best leaders in business, in government and in life are not glittering saviors. They are professionals you hire to get a job done.

The strongest case for Romney is that he’s nobody’s idea of a savior.

while Christopher Benfrey says:

When I ask locals about their impressions of Mitt, I get a recurring response: Nixonian. “The overriding passion of his life seems to be to become president,” a conservative economics professor tells me. “I can’t think of a single issue over which Romney would risk reelection in order to stick to a principle.”

Intrade trading suggests that Rep. Anthony Weiner will probably resign

before the end of this September:

Intrade prediction market says Rick Perry is jumping into the 2012 presidential race

The chaos in Newt Gingrich's camp seems to be the catalyst, as staffers could be ditching him for Perry.  Via Justin Wolfers.  Image link here.

Sad news: Intrade/Tradesports founder John Delaney has died

John Delaney, 41, from Ireland, has collapsed less than 50m from the top. He left for the expedition on April 9 and was due back in Ireland at the end of this month. His body will remain where he died.--Chris Masse

He was 42, climbing Mount Everest (more here), and he was best known for his role in running InTrade.com.  He was also an MR reader and sometimes he wrote to me.  He will be missed.  His wife is pregnant with another child but did not have the chance to tell him before he died.--Tyler Cowen

I would not have even started this blog (this is the 4,854th post) had I not opened a Tradesports account, learned about prediction markets, and enjoyed great chats in the trading pit with other traders. John wrote the kings of blogosphere like Tyler, but also he corresponded with small fry like me. My sympathies go out to his family, and I hope that I can carry the torch--for discovering greater truth through prediction markets--for another mile or two until my time comes.

Chris Masse points out that Intrade futures failed to predict the demise of Osama Bin Laden

here.

Any tool has its limits.  Scroll down on his post for a bit of a conversation in the comments.

I'd say that any committee decisions are difficult to predict, especially if the committee is not stable in membership, nor has a track record of similar decisions to quantify.

Juries might seem fit this description, but I think they are an exception, because there are a lot of legal (e.g. voir dire rules), judicial (charges to the jury from the judge), and cultural (Law & Order television) that would actually stabilize the process of selecting juries.

Image link here.

It doesn't suck

In Predictalot.

Intrade adds a "time and sales" feature

Nice.

Intrade contract pricing predicts a leadership change in Yemen

Source here.

No No-Fly Zone, No Gaddafi Gone

I noted 5 days ago that the Intrade Gaddafi-Gone-In-2011 contract was fading a bit. It has since accelerated into a crash.

Libya's Gaddafi 'Gone in 2011' contract fading from over 90% to under 80%

Source here.

UPDATE: This was seared, seared into my memory just now.

Intrade Oscar prediction roundup

Back in December, I posted a snapshot of Academy Awards predictions. At the time, I couldn't find a comparable prediction site, and while I meant to look some more in January, I was just too busy with other priorities. These results aren't nearly as interesting unless benchmarked or in competition with another popular source.

The Intrade futures pricing back in December predicted the winners of the Best Actor and Best Actress awards. While they missed on Best Picture and Best Director, February prices for The King's Speech were quite predictive, trading above 80% all month.

Intrade traders missed Tom Hooper's win, as his February prices traded above 50% before dipping back into the 30s, while David Fincher (director of The Social Network) traded in the 40s before popping back up around 60%.