Once again, Intrade markets do not agree with the polls

One of my favorite bloggers says:

I am triumphantly vindicated in my opinion that the Obama campaign's in trouble. This is not adequate to still my deep regret that John McCain might actually be our next president.

But Obama makes progress where it counts: in electoral votes. Virginia is now looking to be in his corner.
Democrat: 286 [+13]
Republican: 227
Dead Heat: 25 [-13]
Total: 538 (270 to win)

Given the superior track record of Intrade's state primary predictions, I give the prediction market much more weight.

UPDATE: Stephen Green pushes the envelope with this doomsday scenario:
In this case, it would go to the House of Representatives. If the GOP members failed to show up for the vote, then Dick Cheney would be President!