Final Intrade v. Zogby Showdown Results

Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party's nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.

Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.

Standings
Wins	Losses	Ties	Pct	Contender	Avg Eve Prob
7	3	11	59.5%	Intrade	71.3%
3	7	11	40.5%	Zogby	40.7%

Schedule
Score	Date		State	Party	Intrade	Zogby	Winner		Intrade Pct	Zogby Pct
7-3-11	6-May		IN	Dem	Clinton	2-way-tie	Clinton		85%	42%
6-3-11	6-May		NC	Dem	Obama	Obama	Obama		90%	50%
6-3-10	22-Apr		PA	Dem	Clinton	Clinton	Clinton		82%	47%
6-3-9	4-Mar		OH	Dem	Clinton	2-way-tie	Clinton		70%	45%
5-3-9	4-Mar		TX	Dem	Obama	2-way-tie	Clinton		57%	44%
5-2-9	5-Feb		NJ	Rep	McCain	McCain	McCain		96%	52%
5-2-8	5-Feb		NJ	Dem	Clinton	2-way-tie	Clinton		67%	43%
4-2-8	5-Feb		NY	Rep	McCain	McCain	McCain		98%	53%
4-2-7	5-Feb		GA	Dem	Obama	Obama	Obama		96%	48%
4-2-6	5-Feb		MO	Dem	Obama	Obama	Obama		63%	47%
4-2-5	5-Feb		CA	Rep	McCain	Romney	McCain		56%	40%
3-2-5	5-Feb		CA	Dem	Obama	Obama	Clinton		52%	46%
3-2-4	29-Jan		FL	Rep	McCain	2-way-tie	McCain		51%	33%
2-2-4	26-Jan		SC	Dem	Obama	Obama	Obama		90%	38%
2-2-3	19-Jan		SC	Rep	McCain	McCain	McCain		56%	29%
2-2-2	19-Jan		NV	Dem	Obama	Clinton	Clinton		54%	42%
2-1-2	15-Jan		MI	Rep	McCain	2-way tie	Romney		54%	27%
2-0-2	8-Jan		NH	Dem	Obama	Obama	Clinton		91%	39%
2-0-1	8-Jan		NH	Rep	McCain	McCain	McCain		82%	34%
2-0-0	3-Jan		IA	Dem	Obama	3-way tie	Obama		54%	28%
1-0-0	3-Jan		IA	Rep	Huckabee	2-way tie	Huckabee		53%	28%

Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.