Tuesday, September 09, 2008

McPalin gains on Jobama

It looks like Intrade prices may be following the polls, instead of leading them, as is my usual assumption (kudos to Megan for being ahead of the curve).

John McCain has gained significantly, by getting Ohio to bend towards him, and by pulling Virginia and Colorado back to deadlocks. Barack Obama needs to regain the upper hand, perhaps in the upcoming debate on September 26.
Democrat: 260 [-26]
Republican: 247 [+20]
Dead Heat: 31 [+6]
Total: 538 (270 to win)

Back in August, I noted Ezra Klein's view that:
This election, in other words, is becoming a contest to decide which type of elite voters hate -- or fear, or mistrust -- more: A social elite or an economic elite?

It appears that Sarah Palin has countered the perception of elitism quite effectively.

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