Tuesday, October 31, 2006

Thank you for the introduction...

Thanks Cav for letting me contribute. I have been on TS for over a year now and hope to contribute/create interesting discussion. My main posts will mainly be for sports/business/politics.

My Value Buy of The Day:

VA.SENATE06.GOP Last traded at 45; Allen dropped around 20+ pts today due to a few polls that came out today. Rasmussen showed Democratic challenger up 5 pts but the sample apparently came from only one day of polling and that occured on a Sunday. CNN and Zogby also came out with polls showing Webb up by 4 pts as well. Zogby has had a history of being inaccurate over the past few election cycles but this is a race to keep an eye on and for less than 50 screams buy.

My Sleeper Buy of the Day:

FL-16.HOUSE.DEM Shorting this seat in my humble opinion is my sleeper pick for the house election. Last trade was at 71 (albeit low volume) but if you can short it in the high 60's/70's it should return nice. This is Mark Foley's old seat and while GOP chances in this district looked slim at first, retaining this seat now looks like a possiblity. There are two distinct differences between this race and Tx-22 (Delay's old seat). 1) A vote for foley is a vote Negron and 2) Foley's name is already on the ballot. The public in this district is already very aware of the situation due to the extensive media coverage and roughly 60%+ already know Foley is no longer running. Another plus for the GOP is that this is a strong Republican district. (correction- republican leaning district- Bush54/46).

Update: Via RCP, an appeals court has ruled that signs can notify voters that "a vote for foley is a vote for negron" as long as the signs also say "a vote for mahoney is a vote for mahoney".

Full Disclosure: I currently own both positions

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