In another important area of analysis, we are convinced that national polls are overstating the potential for Republicans to lose both houses of Congress. Our local congressional contest (IL-6), between Peter Roskam (R) and Tammy Duckworth (D), for the seat being vacated by long serving house member Henry Hyde (R), is considered a toss-up by many national pollsters.
This seat is mostly in DuPage County, a staunch Republican stronghold. If the polls are correct, there has been a groundswell of Democratic support. But there is scant evidence to support this notion.
In the 2004 primary, an uncontested Hyde received 50,583 votes, while two Democrats split 36,158 votes. Hyde went on to win 139,627 to 110,470. In the 2006 primary, an uncontested Peter Roskam received 50,794 votes, while three Democratic challengers (who spent almost $1 million combined) split 32,575 votes. Republican votes went up by 211, while Democratic votes fell by 3,583. Where’s the groundswell?
While we have not analyzed every race in the country, based upon hard data from IL-6, we are discounting national polls, and we continue to believe that Republicans will maintain control of both houses of Congress this election.
I think Westbury forecasts as well as any economist out there. And I am long a little HOUSE.GOP.2006.