Friday, December 17, 2010

Intrade Oscar prediction roundup

Best Picture: Social Network (31%) vs. King's Speech (27%) vs. True Grit (10%)

Best Actor: Colin Firth (57%) vs. James Franco (10%) vs. Jeff Bridges (9%)

Best Actress: Natalie Portman (47%) vs. Annette Benning (26%)

Best Director: David Fincher (49%) vs. 5 other directors at 7% or 8%

Prices found here.  Markets are illiquid, spreads wide.  Probabilities calculated by using 0% for contracts without bid, 100% for contracts without offer, and mid-prices adjusted so that total probability is equal to 100%.

Photo link here.

If anyone has a good source of Oscar predictions to compare predictiveness, I would much appreciate your referral in the comments here.

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