Back in December, I posted a snapshot of Academy Awards predictions. At the time, I couldn't find a comparable prediction site, and while I meant to look some more in January, I was just too busy with other priorities. These results aren't nearly as interesting unless benchmarked or in competition with another popular source.
The
Intrade futures pricing back in December predicted the winners of the Best Actor and Best Actress awards. While they missed on Best Picture and Best Director, February prices for
The King's Speech were quite predictive, trading above 80% all month.
Intrade traders missed Tom Hooper's win, as his February prices traded above 50% before dipping back into the 30s, while David Fincher (director of
The Social Network) traded in the 40s before popping back up around 60%.
ntrade Predicted 11 out 12 Oscars in 2010-11
ReplyDeletehttp://f.ast.ly/bd7QA
Best Picture:
2009: Hurt Locker (53%) YES
2010: The Kings Speech (79.7%) YES
Best Actor:
2009: Jeff Bridges (92%) YES
2010: Colin Firth (94.1%) YES
Best Actress:
2009: Sandra Bullock (68%) YES
2010: Natalie Portman (89.9%) YES
Best Support Actor:
2009: Christoph Waltz (93.5%) YES
2010: Christian Bale (88.9%) YES
Supporting Actress:
2009: Mo'Nique (86%) YES
2010: Mellisa Leo (64.9%) YES
Best Director:
2009: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (85%) YES
2010: David Fincher, The Social Network (63.5%) NO
Bottom Line: In 11 out of 12 cases, the Intrade contracts correctly predicted the Oscar winners.
John Delaney
CEO
Intrade