Contrary to the general perception, Buffett has not had any alpha for the past 10 years. Let us repeat that: Buffett, no alpha, for the past decade. You would have been better off if you had invested your money with David Einhorn. Warren Buffett had a phenomenal annual alpha of 19% between 1956 and 1968. Our current analysis shows that his alpha was more than 30% between 1977 and 1981. During the 80′s and 90′s, his annual alpha declined but was still better than 12%. For the ten years leading to mid-2003, his annual alpha stayed around 12% per year. Since then, it started a steep decline; by the end of 2004 it was (still a respectable) 6% per year. Between 2005 and 2008 Buffett’s alpha averaged only 3% per year. Finally, in the ten years ending in 2009, it went virtually to zero.Whether in sports or Nobel prizes in science, it seems a person's greatest achievements tend to occur in their twenties and thirties. But I think at least part of the decline here can be found in Berkshire's $200 billion market cap. It's a lot harder to move in and out of opportunities when you are piloting a supertanker versus a speedboat.
Originally from the pit at Tradesports(TM) (RIP 2008) ... on trading, risk, economics, politics, policy, sports, culture, entertainment, and whatever else might increase awareness, interest and liquidity of prediction markets
Friday, October 15, 2010
Has Warren Buffett gotten too big or too old?
Insider Monkey runs an analysis, and finds:
Labels:
Buffett,
Wall Street
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