Friday, September 24, 2010

CNBC is claiming their interview with David Tepper popped the market up 1%

in pre-open index futures trading.

Personally, I think it was more from the durable goods and capital goods orders data that came out at 830am.

Tepper was extremely bullish on stocks before the announcement, so he may have set the table for it. He more than doubled his fund in 2009, and has averaged nearly 40% annual returns.  Which is pretty awesome.

But there's no free lunch: he takes enormous risk.  His annual volatility is higher than his annual returns, which, for those of us who are influenced by risk-adjusted-return metrics, is not so impressive.  In fact, I can boast that my Sharpe and Information ratios are better over the past 3 years, (although I have not doubled the assets I manage in that time).

Over the past couple of years, Appaloosa's returns correlate fairly closely to the XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR) assuming that Tepper employed moderate leverage over that time.  I doubt the XLF will double again in the next year.  I see contraction in the financial space.  But given Tepper's track record, I think he'll find some other fast movers to exploit.

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