The trading fee is 5 cents per $10 lot for trades between 5 and 95, and 3 cents per lot outside that range. The expiry fee is 10 cents per lot. Obviously Intrade needs to take a cut somewhere, but these per-lot charges distort the markets towards the extremes. For example, there is a bid out right now on Joe Lieberman to win at 0.3%. This probably overestimates his chances, but no one will ever match that offer. Why? If you bet against Lieberman at those odds, for every lot, you'd win 3 cents. Minus 3 cents for trading and 10 cents for expiry, for a net loss of 10 cents. This means there is no reason to bet against anything at odds less than 1.4%, because you can't possibly win money. This fee system also reduces the volume of trade substantially. Right now someone is offering to buy Mark Sanford at 1.5. If I took that bet, I'd be risking $9.88 to win $0.02, or laying about 500-1 odds. Meanwhile, the person on the other side of the bet would only receive a 65-1 payout if they won. Another way of putting that is that Intrade is charging an 87% commission on that trade. That's far too high, and kills most of the action in that range. A much less distorting system would be to charge traders a small percentage of each winning trade.
Fundamentally, it makes no sense to bet against anyone at odds of 10% or less. ... [Otherwise,] it would require a greater fool to come along and risk [even more on a long dated trade]. That's not impossible, but it's never a good idea to make bets which require others' stupidity in order to succeed.
Originally from the pit at Tradesports(TM) (RIP 2008) ... on trading, risk, economics, politics, policy, sports, culture, entertainment, and whatever else might increase awareness, interest and liquidity of prediction markets
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Jesse Livermore has some good advice for Intrade, and Intraders
here:
Labels:
Intrade,
prediction markets,
trading
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