Quotes of the day

It is almost always impossible to infer specific causes from general effects.

--Bill James, who has done more to turn baseball statistics into science
The context of this quote:

Q: Using various statistics over a player’s lifetime, and comparing them to “league norms,” is it possible to determine which players may have used steroids?

A: Absolutely not, no. The problem is that many different causes can have the same effects. If a player used steroids, this could cause his home run total to explode at an advanced age — but so could weight training, Lasix surgery, better bats, playing in a different park, a great hitting coach, or a good divorce.

He also says:

We haven’t figured out anything yet. A hundred years from now, we won’t have begun to have the game figured out.

On the origins of his work:

What I do was heavily influenced by the University of Chicago economists of the 1960’s.

On the quality of television journalism:

Oh, we do horrible analysis sometimes. There will never be a shortage of B.S. What we do, essentially, is to pick up things that people say and ask “Is that true?” This can be done with regard to almost anything — any sport, including politics. The people who analyze politics on television say absolutely ridiculous things with a frequency that would make the laziest baseball announcer look like Socrates by comparison.

On the limits of science:

Scientists don’t know anything more about whether there is a God than morons do, because it’s not a scientific issue. This isn’t something I can measure. It’s a matter of faith.

And some practical advice for everyone:

Q: How important are good-hitting pitchers to the success of an offense in the N.L.?

A: Exactly as important as good-fitting underwear on a long drive.

An aphorism:

Does looking at pretty women prevent one from experiencing love? Life is complicated. Your efforts to compartmentalize it are lame and useless.

Movie scoop:

Q: Who is playing you in the movie version of Moneyball that’s in the works?

A: Meryl Streep. She’s having a little trouble with the accent.