Monday, February 28, 2011

Intrade Oscar prediction roundup

Back in December, I posted a snapshot of Academy Awards predictions. At the time, I couldn't find a comparable prediction site, and while I meant to look some more in January, I was just too busy with other priorities. These results aren't nearly as interesting unless benchmarked or in competition with another popular source.

The Intrade futures pricing back in December predicted the winners of the Best Actor and Best Actress awards. While they missed on Best Picture and Best Director, February prices for The King's Speech were quite predictive, trading above 80% all month.

Intrade traders missed Tom Hooper's win, as his February prices traded above 50% before dipping back into the 30s, while David Fincher (director of The Social Network) traded in the 40s before popping back up around 60%.

1 comment:

  1. ntrade Predicted 11 out 12 Oscars in 2010-11

    Best Picture:
    2009: Hurt Locker (53%) YES
    2010: The Kings Speech (79.7%) YES

    Best Actor:
    2009: Jeff Bridges (92%) YES
    2010: Colin Firth (94.1%) YES

    Best Actress:
    2009: Sandra Bullock (68%) YES
    2010: Natalie Portman (89.9%) YES

    Best Support Actor:
    2009: Christoph Waltz (93.5%) YES
    2010: Christian Bale (88.9%) YES

    Supporting Actress:
    2009: Mo'Nique (86%) YES
    2010: Mellisa Leo (64.9%) YES

    Best Director:
    2009: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker (85%) YES
    2010: David Fincher, The Social Network (63.5%) NO

    Bottom Line: In 11 out of 12 cases, the Intrade contracts correctly predicted the Oscar winners.

    John Delaney