Ezra Klein has a post promoting Blinder and Zandi's model that shows massive good effects from more government deficit spending. As the model is a 1970's vintage approach, an approach that attracted the nations best minds for decades, and was abandoned because they don't work better than rather simple alternatives (eg, a vector autoregression of GDP, Fed Funds, and the Baa-Aaa spread).
I found this amusing because it highlights that journalists grab whatever science supports their ends. The details are not important, you have a professor with lots of publications, he has a complicated scientific argument, it makes you an objective, rational journalist. He even quotes Narayana Kocherlakota saying macro models work, not realizing the Kocherlakota was actually talking about a very different class of models than the one Blinder and Zandi use, and forgetting that of course a macroeconomist would say macro theory works.
...
I spent 3 years of my life working directly for private sector macroeconomists, and the main thing I learned is they don't know anything useful. It's like studying the labor theory of value: if you really understand and have tested it empirically, you use such knowledge on the subject only in arguing with naive people who think the theory can buttress their arguments. I try to rationalize my waste of time on this subject by saying 'well, I now know really well what we don't know', but as the list of irrelevant theories is infinite, if I could redo my career I would have just ignored it all from the outset.
Originally from the pit at Tradesports(TM) (RIP 2008) ... on trading, risk, economics, politics, policy, sports, culture, entertainment, and whatever else might increase awareness, interest and liquidity of prediction markets
Monday, August 02, 2010
Eric Falkenstein spanks Ezra Klein
here:
Labels:
bias,
economics,
journalism,
scientific religiosity
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