I was considering prediction market incentives given Paul Tetlock's research a year ago. Clearly, Intrade policies are not helping the prediction market cause.I recently withdrew money from an InTrade account I've had for some years. The total cost of withdrawing the money was $53.10: A $20 fee to InTrade for "processing the bank wire", a €10 ($13.10) wire-transfer fee to National Irish Bank, and a $20 fee to Bank of America, the intermediary bank via which the money arrived in my Citibank account. If Citi had charged their customary $25 incoming wire fee, the total would have been $78.10.
You need to have a very large balance at InTrade, or an incredibly successful trading strategy, to make trading there worthwhile if it costs the best part of $80 just to withdraw your money. And prediction markets need a critical mass of users, otherwise they die. InTrade, for one, can count me out.
Originally from the pit at Tradesports(TM) (RIP 2008) ... on trading, risk, economics, politics, policy, sports, culture, entertainment, and whatever else might increase awareness, interest and liquidity of prediction markets
Thursday, December 04, 2008
Felix Salmon gives up on Intrade
after getting fleeced in fees:
Labels:
Intrade,
prediction markets
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