Pennsylvania and the Bradley Effect

I was speaking to several Democratic insiders over the weekend, and I was surprised to hear all of them worried about Pennsylvania, which has voted for the Democratic candidate since 1992. Dollars, phone banks, and on-the-ground campaign workers from New York are all focused on keeping Pennsylvania blue.

Perhaps Rep. John Murtha’s remarks on racism in his own constituents, along with the worriers here in New York, is suggesting some social desirability bias.

Do you think the Intrade pricing for PA is that far off? I personally don’t, but perhaps I put too much credence in prediction markets.

UPDATE: Rasmussen says that McCain must win either PA or IN, and also all of these states: CO, FL, MI, NC, OH, VA. Seems like a long shot.

UPDATE: Intrade has Indiana and Missouri going for McCain, but the other 6 states going to Obama, in some cases, very heavily for Obama.