I am thinking that a fed fund rate increase, even just a symbolic 0.25%, may head off job destruction.
Inflation seems to be most intense in commodities, with oil reaching inflation-adjusted record highs, and certain metals and crops also hitting nominal record highs. The CRB Index has risen 35% in the last 6 months. But I think a significant part of this movement is frenzied speculation fueled by easier money.
If the Fed comes out and says inflation is a problem and raises rates, it may actually pop the commodities bubble. Then consumer inflation eases. If it eases enough, then household spending power goes up, thereby saving jobs (which is what the Fed is trying to do by cutting rates).
Any takers?
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