Friday, December 14, 2007

Ray Fair's March 2007 paper on MLB age effects

predicts some of the same players in the Mitchell Report (via Tyler Cowen), listed by descending "standard errors":
Barry Bonds
Mark McGwire
Rafael Palmiero
Sammy Sosa
Larry Walker
Ken Caminiti
Those in Fair's paper, but not named in the Mitchell Report (listed alphabetically, after Luis Gonzalez, who Fair found had one of the largest standard errors):
Luis Gonzalez

Albert Belle
Chili Davis
Dwight Evans
Julio Franco
Gary Gaetti
Andres Gallaraga
Paul Molitor
The entire paper can be found here. A final note from Fair:
Even star players like Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Rogers Hornsby, and Lou Gehrig do not show systematic patterns. In this sense the model works well, with only a few key exceptions.

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