Thursday, January 04, 2007

For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes

Tradesports provides probability markets in Super Bowl and Conference victories. It logically follows that a team can only win the Super Bowl if it wins its conference, i.e. p (B | A) = 1. Bayes' Theorem provides the probablity of a team winning the Super Bowl upon winning its conference, i.e. p (A | B).

As of 1230pm Thu Dec 4 2007, here's what p (A | B) looked like:

67% NFL.RAVENS
65% NFL.CHARGERS
64% NFL.PATRIOTS
62% NFL.COLTS
56% NFL.CHIEFS
41% NFL.COWBOYS
41% NFL.SEAHAWKS
40% NFL.GIANTS
39% NFL.EAGLES
38% NFL.SAINTS
36% NFL.BEARS
28% NFL.JETS

Note the high AFC prospects relative to the NFC teams. The JETS are a bit surprising at the bottom of the list; I think they could beat any of these NFC playoff teams in the Super Bowl (and I'm from New England).

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