For those NFL fans who also subscribe to Bayes

Tradesports provides probability markets in Super Bowl and Conference victories. It logically follows that a team can only win the Super Bowl if it wins its conference, i.e. p (B | A) = 1. Bayes' Theorem provides the probablity of a team winning the Super Bowl upon winning its conference, i.e. p (A | B).

As of 1230pm Thu Dec 4 2007, here's what p (A | B) looked like:

67%	NFL.RAVENS
65%	NFL.CHARGERS
64%	NFL.PATRIOTS
62%	NFL.COLTS
56%	NFL.CHIEFS
41%	NFL.COWBOYS
41%	NFL.SEAHAWKS
40%	NFL.GIANTS
39%	NFL.EAGLES
38%	NFL.SAINTS
36%	NFL.BEARS
28%	NFL.JETS

Note the high AFC prospects relative to the NFC teams. The JETS are a bit surprising at the bottom of the list; I think they could beat any of these NFC playoff teams in the Super Bowl (and I'm from New England).