Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Final Intrade v. Zogby Showdown Results

Superdelegate chicanery notwithstanding, Obama has won his party's nomination, so my head-to-head contest between a major pollster (Zogby) and major prediction market (Intrade) will be coming to a close.

Unsurprising to those who know a little bit about the scholarship, economics, and/or track record of prediction markets, the traders of Intrade provided us much better data this election season than the respondents to the Zogby polls.

Standings



Wins Losses Ties Pct Contender Avg Eve Prob






7 3 11 59.5% Intrade 71.3%
3 7 11 40.5% Zogby 40.7%

Schedule








Score Date
State Party Intrade Zogby Winner
Intrade Pct Zogby Pct











7-3-11 6-May
IN Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton
85% 42%
6-3-11 6-May
NC Dem Obama Obama Obama
90% 50%
6-3-10 22-Apr
PA Dem Clinton Clinton Clinton
82% 47%
6-3-9 4-Mar
OH Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton
70% 45%
5-3-9 4-Mar
TX Dem Obama 2-way-tie Clinton
57% 44%
5-2-9 5-Feb
NJ Rep McCain McCain McCain
96% 52%
5-2-8 5-Feb
NJ Dem Clinton 2-way-tie Clinton
67% 43%
4-2-8 5-Feb
NY Rep McCain McCain McCain
98% 53%
4-2-7 5-Feb
GA Dem Obama Obama Obama
96% 48%
4-2-6 5-Feb
MO Dem Obama Obama Obama
63% 47%
4-2-5 5-Feb
CA Rep McCain Romney McCain
56% 40%
3-2-5 5-Feb
CA Dem Obama Obama Clinton
52% 46%
3-2-4 29-Jan
FL Rep McCain 2-way-tie McCain
51% 33%
2-2-4 26-Jan
SC Dem Obama Obama Obama
90% 38%
2-2-3 19-Jan
SC Rep McCain McCain McCain
56% 29%
2-2-2 19-Jan
NV Dem Obama Clinton Clinton
54% 42%
2-1-2 15-Jan
MI Rep McCain 2-way tie Romney
54% 27%
2-0-2 8-Jan
NH Dem Obama Obama Clinton
91% 39%
2-0-1 8-Jan
NH Rep McCain McCain McCain
82% 34%
2-0-0 3-Jan
IA Dem Obama 3-way tie Obama
54% 28%
1-0-0 3-Jan
IA Rep Huckabee 2-way tie Huckabee
53% 28%


Lord willing, I will have another showdown season, but will most likely choose another pollster. Whereas Intrade listed contracts and probabilities for every state primary, Zogby only provided election eve updates for only 21 of the 87 held to date. Rasmussen stands out as a worthy pollster, but I would be happy with any candidate referrals from my readers as well.

No comments:

Post a Comment