Tuesday, July 17, 2007

A little skepticism on the huge fundraising advantage of Hillary and Barack

Awhile back, I posted an update on the strong fund raising and cash positions of the Democratic front runners.

I've been thinking more about it since then, and suspect that the large Dem lead will diminish within the next 12 months. Having a little more exposure to campaign donations myself and more conversations with other donors, I've learned that donors HATE donating to a sure loser. But it happens, as some of my friends who have "had" to donate to Biden and Dodd have shared with me.

A lemma to the above principle: donors LIKE donating to a winner; I mean, that's the quid pro quo point, isn't it?

With the uncertainty of "Fred Thompson: in or out" many potential GOP donors are keeping their powder dry. What is the point of donating to Giuliani or Romney now, if one of them is going to fall out of the race before the end of the state primary cycle? Once the GOP Top 2 candidates are revealed (the way Hilary and Barack have been all quarter), the GOP will start catching up in their aggregate fundraising.

This may also have an effect with polls and pundits, which is why I believe that the Dem pricing of 56% chance of presidential victory is well below what the pollsters are reporting.

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