Thanks Cav for letting me contribute. I have been on TS for over a year now and hope to contribute/create interesting discussion. My main posts will mainly be for sports/business/politics.
My Value Buy of The Day:
VA.SENATE06.GOP Last traded at 45; Allen dropped around 20+ pts today due to a few polls that came out today. Rasmussen showed Democratic challenger up 5 pts but the sample apparently came from only one day of polling and that occured on a Sunday. CNN and Zogby also came out with polls showing Webb up by 4 pts as well. Zogby has had a history of being inaccurate over the past few election cycles but this is a race to keep an eye on and for less than 50 screams buy.
My Sleeper Buy of the Day:
FL-16.HOUSE.DEM Shorting this seat in my humble opinion is my sleeper pick for the house election. Last trade was at 71 (albeit low volume) but if you can short it in the high 60's/70's it should return nice. This is Mark Foley's old seat and while GOP chances in this district looked slim at first, retaining this seat now looks like a possiblity. There are two distinct differences between this race and Tx-22 (Delay's old seat). 1) A vote for foley is a vote Negron and 2) Foley's name is already on the ballot. The public in this district is already very aware of the situation due to the extensive media coverage and roughly 60%+ already know Foley is no longer running. Another plus for the GOP is that this is a strong Republican district. (correction- republican leaning district- Bush54/46).
Update: Via RCP, an appeals court has ruled that signs can notify voters that "a vote for foley is a vote for negron" as long as the signs also say "a vote for mahoney is a vote for mahoney".
Full Disclosure: I currently own both positions
Tuesday, October 31, 2006
WSJ Reports GOP Edge
From today's WSJ:
Republicans have had an advantage with early-voter turnout over Democrats because of better party funding and organization, according to Paul Gronke, director of the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College in Oregon, a state where traditional Election Day polling has been eliminated altogether in favor of voting by mail. "I suspect it will still be their advantage," he said.In congressional districts from Ohio and Florida to New Mexico and Arizona, Republicans report that their get-out-the-vote organization is gaining traction a week ahead of Election Day. The aim of the effort generally is to maximize turnout among their most loyal and reliable voters. If successful, it could help them to hold down their losses in this election cycle and perhaps even retain their majorities in the House and Senate.
In the fiercely contested New Mexico district held by Republican Heather Wilson, the party says that the number of absentee ballots already requested by Republicans has almost reached the number requested in 2004 -- nearly 22,000 so far this year, compared with almost 24,000 in 2004. The party says it is on a pace to exceed 2004.
Meanwhile, in the bellwether Ohio district held by Republican Steve Chabot, about 60% of all early votes are coming from the roughly 40% of the electorate that the party has targeted for early voting. That's the highest rate in the country, according to an internal party memo, and good news -- "provided they vote the way we predict," the memo adds.
In two Florida districts that are in doubt -- the 13th and 16th, previously held by Reps. Katherine Harris and Mark Foley, respectively -- Republicans are ahead in both absentee balloting and early voting. In previous election cycles, Democrats have enjoyed an advantage in early voting, party operatives say.
And in the Georgia congressional district now held by Democrat Jim Marshall, "nearly twice as many of our supporters are voting as they should be, based on population," according to the internal memo. President Bush will visit the district today to stump for the Republican challenger, former congressman Mac Collins. Republicans hope to unseat Democrats in two districts in Georgia as a way of offsetting losses expected in districts across the Midwest and in the Northeast.
Monday, October 30, 2006
Solid economic forecaster thinks GOP retains control of both houses
Brian Wesbury says:
In another important area of analysis, we are convinced that national polls are overstating the potential for Republicans to lose both houses of Congress. Our local congressional contest (IL-6), between Peter Roskam (R) and Tammy Duckworth (D), for the seat being vacated by long serving house member Henry Hyde (R), is considered a toss-up by many national pollsters.
This seat is mostly in DuPage County, a staunch Republican stronghold. If the polls are correct, there has been a groundswell of Democratic support. But there is scant evidence to support this notion.
In the 2004 primary, an uncontested Hyde received 50,583 votes, while two Democrats split 36,158 votes. Hyde went on to win 139,627 to 110,470. In the 2006 primary, an uncontested Peter Roskam received 50,794 votes, while three Democratic challengers (who spent almost $1 million combined) split 32,575 votes. Republican votes went up by 211, while Democratic votes fell by 3,583. Where’s the groundswell?
While we have not analyzed every race in the country, based upon hard data from IL-6, we are discounting national polls, and we continue to believe that Republicans will maintain control of both houses of Congress this election.
Friday, October 27, 2006
Dow 11600
I never liked the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and here are some great reasons why not. But the guys in the Pit like the Dow, so when in Rome ...
I called the DOW.TOUCH.12000 back in late 2005 for 2006, and now I am calling for DOW.TOUCH.11600 in the next few months. While I don't think that equities are overvalued, I think a moderate selloff is coming, due to the following drivers:
+ end of reporting and fiscal year for many mutual funds and banks is holding off meaningful selling
+ VIX (volatility index) sputtering down to a 10 year low, and the suggested rebound in vol will bring some fear back to balance the greed
+ while most earnings reports are still to the upside, the share of disappointments is growing vs. previous earnings season. Also, revenues are not increasing as quickly anymore.
I don't think there will be much of a housing crash. And even so, I don't think a housing crash will affect things very much. Of course, the bears say different (but they are also extinct).
UPDATE: The Dow puked 30 points in the 30 minutes after this post went up. Strange coincidence, me thinks.
I called the DOW.TOUCH.12000 back in late 2005 for 2006, and now I am calling for DOW.TOUCH.11600 in the next few months. While I don't think that equities are overvalued, I think a moderate selloff is coming, due to the following drivers:
+ end of reporting and fiscal year for many mutual funds and banks is holding off meaningful selling
+ VIX (volatility index) sputtering down to a 10 year low, and the suggested rebound in vol will bring some fear back to balance the greed
+ while most earnings reports are still to the upside, the share of disappointments is growing vs. previous earnings season. Also, revenues are not increasing as quickly anymore.
I don't think there will be much of a housing crash. And even so, I don't think a housing crash will affect things very much. Of course, the bears say different (but they are also extinct).
UPDATE: The Dow puked 30 points in the 30 minutes after this post went up. Strange coincidence, me thinks.
Monday, October 23, 2006
Laying It All Down On MNF, Oct 23
Hey guys, as you all know it I had another bad week, and it's just getting worst and worst. So i'm going to LAY IT ALL DOWN tonight. If I don't hit this one, i'm not going to post here unless I get some good picks. I will also add this to (OTHERS GOYS/TOYS) This is not only my favorite pick, but also from the forum BY HIZZ_HONOR. So i'm considering this the my top play.
The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys bring identical 3-2 records into their Monday night match at Texas Stadium. Both are in hot pursuit of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. The Giants own a win over the Eagles already this year while the Cowboys lost in Philadelphia two weeks ago 38-24. They then bounced back last week to score a 34-6 home win over Houston. No strangers to Monday night, the Cowboys have been on the Show 18 times since 1997, winning 11 times and going 9-9 ATS. They are 4-3 straight-up at home but just 2-5 ATS. They also have split the last four at home versus the Giants, going just 1-3 ATS. The Giants are riding a two-game win streak, having beaten Washington at home 19-3 and Atlanta on the road 27-14. They have been on MNF 11 times since 1998 and are a dismal 2-9 straight-up and against-the-number.
NY Giants: 35-16 Under off a win by 10+ points
Dallas: 2-11 ATS off a win by 28+ points
JEDI PICK OF THE DAY: Dallas -3.5 Looks like i'm a Dallas fan for tonight, It's to hard to play against my Giants, but I gotta stick to the better team. As much as I like Dallas tonight, I'm loving the over/under play, my TOY play is Under 45. This game will go way under thinking that it will be decided on the ground. If Bledsoe doesn't have time to through the ball to his receivers, Parcells will also look to go to the ground. Tiki Barber will try to turn up the heat tonight, but do consider that Cowboys are the toughest running defenses in the NFL. If Tiki doesn't go anywhere, watch the clock wind down. Expect Manning and Barber to see alot of stars tonight, because the Tiki torch won't be lit.
JEDIMINDTRICKS RECORD
ALL NFL GAMES: 28-23
WEEKLY PICK 6: 11-5, Swept my Fab Four picks
PICK OF THE DAY/WEEK: 6-6 Got Smoked With Philly AGAIN
OTHER GOYS/TOYS: 2-1
The New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys bring identical 3-2 records into their Monday night match at Texas Stadium. Both are in hot pursuit of the Philadelphia Eagles in the NFC East. The Giants own a win over the Eagles already this year while the Cowboys lost in Philadelphia two weeks ago 38-24. They then bounced back last week to score a 34-6 home win over Houston. No strangers to Monday night, the Cowboys have been on the Show 18 times since 1997, winning 11 times and going 9-9 ATS. They are 4-3 straight-up at home but just 2-5 ATS. They also have split the last four at home versus the Giants, going just 1-3 ATS. The Giants are riding a two-game win streak, having beaten Washington at home 19-3 and Atlanta on the road 27-14. They have been on MNF 11 times since 1998 and are a dismal 2-9 straight-up and against-the-number.
NY Giants: 35-16 Under off a win by 10+ points
Dallas: 2-11 ATS off a win by 28+ points
JEDI PICK OF THE DAY: Dallas -3.5 Looks like i'm a Dallas fan for tonight, It's to hard to play against my Giants, but I gotta stick to the better team. As much as I like Dallas tonight, I'm loving the over/under play, my TOY play is Under 45. This game will go way under thinking that it will be decided on the ground. If Bledsoe doesn't have time to through the ball to his receivers, Parcells will also look to go to the ground. Tiki Barber will try to turn up the heat tonight, but do consider that Cowboys are the toughest running defenses in the NFL. If Tiki doesn't go anywhere, watch the clock wind down. Expect Manning and Barber to see alot of stars tonight, because the Tiki torch won't be lit.
JEDIMINDTRICKS RECORD
ALL NFL GAMES: 28-23
WEEKLY PICK 6: 11-5, Swept my Fab Four picks
PICK OF THE DAY/WEEK: 6-6 Got Smoked With Philly AGAIN
OTHER GOYS/TOYS: 2-1
Sunday, October 22, 2006
Tom Bell predicts that the new anti-gambling legislation will increase gambling
He's a pretty smart dude:
Read the whole thing. (Hat tip to Jason Ruspini).
The UnInGEn-ious Act thus sends a clear signal to state legislatures and the lobbyists who love them: If you legalize casino or sportsbook Internet gambling, the feds will not intervene. A single state could, by recognizing the right of its citizens to gamble on in-state or overseas websites, create many new opportunities for taxation. Those tax revenues will increase, moreover, once other states follow suit and thereby create a national market for legal internet gambling. California residents might thereby gamble in New Jersey without ever leaving home.
Legislators would get more tax revenues to play with. Consumers would benefit from easier access to gambling services and, thanks to the effects of increased competition, better odds. Bricks-and-mortar casinos and sportsbook operations would have to figure out how to upload their services, granted, but that would merely put them on the same footing as businesses like The New York Times or Home Depot.
And domestic financial services? They would win access to new and large markets in legal internet gambling transactions, markets safely sheltered from the reach of the UnInGEn-ious Act. Domestic financial services will probably not want to offer credit to gamblers, granted. Under common law, courts generally refuse to enforce gambling debts—even debts run up on legal games. But that would still leave domestic financial services free to offer gamblers debit cards and the like.
Read the whole thing. (Hat tip to Jason Ruspini).
Saturday, October 21, 2006
NFL PLAY OF THE DAY
I won't be posting my plays this week, but if you do want to see what I was going to post, check it out at my blog. But I will be posting my POD of the week.....
Philadelphia -5.5 @ TampaBay
JEDI PICK: This is my pick of the week, Look for Philly to come back after a bad loss against NewOrleans. This is a bounce back game. Plaing hard on this game. One of my top this week playing 2dimes on this game. I'll be adding this to my play of the day/week winning reconrd. Have fun everyone
Philadelphia -5.5 @ TampaBay
JEDI PICK: This is my pick of the week, Look for Philly to come back after a bad loss against NewOrleans. This is a bounce back game. Plaing hard on this game. One of my top this week playing 2dimes on this game. I'll be adding this to my play of the day/week winning reconrd. Have fun everyone
NFL - Total Of the Year. Oct 22
This total is posted by DommyLocks at the Forum
Arizona/Oakland: Both teams are looking to score, Arizona came off a good game against Chicago, and need I not say more, that they WANT TO SCORE. Oakland is still looking for their win, so they do want to put more points on the board. They've been putting enough points on the board, but figured that they need more to win this game. I just want to appologize that I posted this game up late, and suppose to put this game before Friday night, so you might get a bad total on this play. I took this play at the total of 40. Dommy said it should be goot till 42. So, he said to take the OVER on 40.
TOY: arizona/oakland OVER 40
Pregame is 2-0 posted on CAV's blog on GOYS/TOYS.....remember this is the first TOY posted on here. Need I remind you that DommyLocks lost his first TOY on pregame. This lost is VERY VERY important. Because he lost the last TOY (which I didn't post because I didn't like) Dom's rate should be more than 70%. If he lost his first TOY, that means his next toy should be more thand 75 to 80%. As everyone already knows it, I RARELY RARELY post GOYS/TOYS so be sure to hop on this game.
Arizona/Oakland: Both teams are looking to score, Arizona came off a good game against Chicago, and need I not say more, that they WANT TO SCORE. Oakland is still looking for their win, so they do want to put more points on the board. They've been putting enough points on the board, but figured that they need more to win this game. I just want to appologize that I posted this game up late, and suppose to put this game before Friday night, so you might get a bad total on this play. I took this play at the total of 40. Dommy said it should be goot till 42. So, he said to take the OVER on 40.
TOY: arizona/oakland OVER 40
Pregame is 2-0 posted on CAV's blog on GOYS/TOYS.....remember this is the first TOY posted on here. Need I remind you that DommyLocks lost his first TOY on pregame. This lost is VERY VERY important. Because he lost the last TOY (which I didn't post because I didn't like) Dom's rate should be more than 70%. If he lost his first TOY, that means his next toy should be more thand 75 to 80%. As everyone already knows it, I RARELY RARELY post GOYS/TOYS so be sure to hop on this game.
Friday, October 20, 2006
Good Bear Hunting
The good news is, my call a year ago about the Dow hitting 12000 has successfully been realized this week. The bad news is that my work has been incredibly busy, and I have not been able to post much.
In trying to catch up a bit, I was over at Instapundit and saw a couple of articles that explain why the traditional media is so gloomy about the economic future. They are holding onto traditions and formats that are being creatively destroyed. Excerpts:
A related story, here (hat tip to Don Luskin). It says:BIG LAYOFFS AT NBC, to the tune of $750 million in cost cuts.
Plus, plunging profits at the New York Times. No wonder the Big Media are acting as if the economy is in dreadful shape. For them, it is.
“As religious readers of Paul Krugman (the New York Times columnist), we had expected the Bush tax cuts to be an unmitigated disaster. Because of President Bush’s “fiscal recklessness” we thought, in 2003, that the US would stay in a recession.
“Then we felt that the recovery would be a profitless recovery. When the profits hit record highs, we then feared that the recovery would be jobless. When the US economy ended up creating more jobs than anyone had thought possible, we fell back on our default position, namely that the Bush tax cuts had endangered the US fiscal position and that we were set to leave mountains of debt to grand-kids etc… (at least the US, unlike Japan or ever larger parts of Europe, has grand-kids to leave debt to!).
“And today, here we are, with our back against the wall as tax receipts in the US are absolutely booming. Maybe, instead of reading Mr Krugman, we should have remembered what Milton Friedman once told us: “I’ve never met a tax cut I did not like”. If so, we may have been able to foresee that, over the past six quarters, tax receipts have been growing at 2.5x the growth rate of US nominal GDP?”
Gavekal Research
Wednesday, October 18, 2006
First Total Of the Year, will be posted on Friday
This will be the first Total Of the Year. It has already been posted at the forum, by Dommylocks. But as soon as I get clearance to post it up, i'll be posting it up on by Friday Night. Be ready, these guys are 2-0 on GOYSandTOYS. And this is the first Total Of the Year i'll be posting on here.
Tuesday, October 17, 2006
Great Leinart Performance, But Bears Go Undefeated
Dominant Urlacher shines in comeback win
The crowd at University of Phoenix stadium was ittered with hundreds of Brian Urlacher jerseys Monday night as Bears fans turned out in full force to support their team. At times it seemed like there were just as many No. 54s on the field as the reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year willed his team to an amazing 24-23 comeback win with a performance for the ages.
Hey, you guys got to give it up to Leinart for a great performance last night. Pushing his team to a GREAT if not his best opening drive of this season. Leinart WILL show the Raiders next week who they should of picked in the draft. Looks like Raiders won't be winning a game for awhile. In my opinion, I still think it would of been a Bears blow out, without those turnovers. Six of them, there's no way that you're going to blowout a team with that. I personally think Bears got away with a win that game. Well that's why they play the game.
Monday, October 16, 2006
Monday Night NFL Oct. 16
THIS WILL BE MY LAST POST ON HERE BECAUSE I GOT AN ASS MUNCH ON MY TAIL, AND REFUSES TO READ THIS BLOG (I WILL NOT CREATE TENSION IN THIS BLOG FOR MY MISTAKES). I MADE AN AGREEMENT WITH CAV, THAT I MUST CREATE INTREST. TO MY KNOWLEDGE I'VE BEEN GETTING ALOT OF INTERESTED PEOPLE, BUT RAN INTO A BUMP. AND JUST DECIDED THAT I WILL STOP POSTING HERE. UNLESS CAV STILL GIVES ME PERMISSION TO STILL KEEP POSTING.
Chicago Bears are coming! Looking much like the Super Bowl contingent of two decades ago the 5-0 Bears roll into Arizona for a Monday Night match with the 1-4 Cardinals. Ariona garnered its lone victory in Week 1, beating San Francisco 34-27 as a 9.5-point choice to celebrate the opening of their new stadium. Since then there's been little to celebrate, with the latest defeat coming last week at home versus Kansas City by a 23-20 score. Meanwhile the Bears were whipping up on Buffalo, pounding the Bills at home 40-7 just one week after taking apart Seattle, also at home, by a 37-6 score. If there's hope for the Cardinals it's that the Bears lone non-cover of the year came on the road. That was in Week 3 when they beat the Vikings 19-16 as a 3.5-point chalk.
Chicago: 1-9 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
Arizona: 21-7 ATS at home off 3+ losses
JEDI THOUGHTS: I'm actually not going to make a pick today. I'll be leaving it all up to you. But i'll give you guys some of the handicappers I look at before prebetting. Line keeps jumping and throwing me off, so i've decided to lay off the game, but I did pick Zona at first, then switched to Bears, now i'm confused, and decided to not play this one. I personally like the Cardinals, but won't be posting this up as a pick.
Tony Bruno/Mark Willard: 5-2/6-1
Isn't it rediculous, Arizona Cardinals are home favorites on National TV, and still underdogs by double digits?
5*play: Cardinals +11.5
Brandon Lang:
Brandon Lang MONDAY ACTION
100 DIME Chicago Bears
10 DIMER New York Mets
he is 7-14 last 21..2-8 last 10 NFL....so be careful....last yr he had an 0-12 skid in NFL
Jeff Bonds: Record: 61-41-4
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals
I don’t like to play double-digit favorites very often in the NFL, but Chicago will have no problem covering this spread. The Bears have the highest scoring offense and best scoring defense in the NFL. Arizona will start rookie quarterback Matt Leinart, who happened to beat the Bears in the preseason, but the Bears showed little interest in trying to win that game. The Cardinals are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine home defeats. There’s no way the Bears lose in front of a Monday Night Football national audience.
Play is Chicago -11 (2 UNIT)
Matty O'Shea:
429 CHI -11.0 (-110) vs 430 ARI
Analysis: The Bears are licking their chops at this rematch with Arizona rookie QB Matt Leinart, who beat them in the preseason. Leinart threw for 144 yards and looked solid, although Chicago has used that as motivation for this meeting. The Cardinals will be without All-Pro wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald due to injury, making things even tougher for Leinart. The Bears are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games against NFC opponents while Arizona has not fared well in prime time, going 2-6 ATS in the team's last eight under the lights. To make matters even worse, the Cardinals have been shelled in their last nine home losses with an 0-8-1 spread record. Look for Chicago to win by more than two touchdowns.
Chicago Bears are coming! Looking much like the Super Bowl contingent of two decades ago the 5-0 Bears roll into Arizona for a Monday Night match with the 1-4 Cardinals. Ariona garnered its lone victory in Week 1, beating San Francisco 34-27 as a 9.5-point choice to celebrate the opening of their new stadium. Since then there's been little to celebrate, with the latest defeat coming last week at home versus Kansas City by a 23-20 score. Meanwhile the Bears were whipping up on Buffalo, pounding the Bills at home 40-7 just one week after taking apart Seattle, also at home, by a 37-6 score. If there's hope for the Cardinals it's that the Bears lone non-cover of the year came on the road. That was in Week 3 when they beat the Vikings 19-16 as a 3.5-point chalk.
Chicago: 1-9 ATS off BB games scoring 25+ points
Arizona: 21-7 ATS at home off 3+ losses
JEDI THOUGHTS: I'm actually not going to make a pick today. I'll be leaving it all up to you. But i'll give you guys some of the handicappers I look at before prebetting. Line keeps jumping and throwing me off, so i've decided to lay off the game, but I did pick Zona at first, then switched to Bears, now i'm confused, and decided to not play this one. I personally like the Cardinals, but won't be posting this up as a pick.
Tony Bruno/Mark Willard: 5-2/6-1
Isn't it rediculous, Arizona Cardinals are home favorites on National TV, and still underdogs by double digits?
5*play: Cardinals +11.5
Brandon Lang:
Brandon Lang MONDAY ACTION
100 DIME Chicago Bears
10 DIMER New York Mets
he is 7-14 last 21..2-8 last 10 NFL....so be careful....last yr he had an 0-12 skid in NFL
Jeff Bonds: Record: 61-41-4
Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals
I don’t like to play double-digit favorites very often in the NFL, but Chicago will have no problem covering this spread. The Bears have the highest scoring offense and best scoring defense in the NFL. Arizona will start rookie quarterback Matt Leinart, who happened to beat the Bears in the preseason, but the Bears showed little interest in trying to win that game. The Cardinals are 0-8-1 ATS in their last nine home defeats. There’s no way the Bears lose in front of a Monday Night Football national audience.
Play is Chicago -11 (2 UNIT)
Matty O'Shea:
429 CHI -11.0 (-110) vs 430 ARI
Analysis: The Bears are licking their chops at this rematch with Arizona rookie QB Matt Leinart, who beat them in the preseason. Leinart threw for 144 yards and looked solid, although Chicago has used that as motivation for this meeting. The Cardinals will be without All-Pro wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald due to injury, making things even tougher for Leinart. The Bears are 11-4-2 ATS in their last 17 games against NFC opponents while Arizona has not fared well in prime time, going 2-6 ATS in the team's last eight under the lights. To make matters even worse, the Cardinals have been shelled in their last nine home losses with an 0-8-1 spread record. Look for Chicago to win by more than two touchdowns.
Sunday, October 15, 2006
Gambling prohibition glass is more than half full
According to Jason Ruspini. An excerpt:
- Only the section eliminating payments to online gambling establishments from US-based institutions was passed in Congress. The broken Wire Act of 1961 was not amended, and the legality of placing non-sports bets online is still ambiguously intact in most States.
- The commercial banking sector and other financial institutions (which are far larger than the casino and gaming industries) have 270 days to cooperate with the law upon final passage. Because of the high cost of compliance, along with the risk of blocking lawful transactions, it is possible that the eventual procedures may lack effectiveness. Significantly, the prescribed regulations are in the hands of the Secretary of the Treasury and the Federal Reserve Board, who only have to "consult" with the US Attorney General. Since not blocking a restricted transaction is not in itself initially a criminal offense, and might only result in an injunction, it is not hard to imagine that consultations with financial institutions might actually carry more weight than those with the Attorney General. (The financial institutions must not, however, "own" "unlawful" gambling businesses, as we know that many in the past have, in the form of stock.)
- Even if there is effective implementation of payment blocking, options such as NETeller (NLR.L), FirePay (FPA.L) or MoneyBookers are somewhat untouched by the legislation. In reality, little has changed for US traders. Overseas internet gambling companies will bear the main brunt of the legislation, as US clients may be reluctant to use alternative payment methods, and even if they do so in large numbers, gambling companies will then face increased counterparty risk. At least one alternative payment company might actually benefit from this law.
- Opponents of online gambling are further disgraced. It was embarrassing enough that they were already catering to the interests of casinos, lotteries and exempted gambling interests in an almost cartoonish fashion. Now they also being called negligent in terms of national security. Anti-anti-gambling animus is growing.
- There are rumors that "tax haven" nations such as Gibraltar and Antigua, among others, are considering legal action against the United States, which was already in violation of a previous WTO trade treaty ruling.
Greg Mankiw's Blog: Speaker Pelosi
In the early days of this blog, I posted something about one of my favorite teaching economists, Greg Mankiw. Ironically, we were on different sides of the legality of gambling issue. But we had a nice exchange of emails, and I ended up liking the guy even more.
However, I just saw that he recently posted a TS graph on his blog, here. Doth the Harvard leopard change his spots?
Dr. Mankiw, don't come to the Dark Side; step into the Light! Here are my reasons why futures trading (what the obtuse media call gambling) is good.
However, I just saw that he recently posted a TS graph on his blog, here. Doth the Harvard leopard change his spots?
Dr. Mankiw, don't come to the Dark Side; step into the Light! Here are my reasons why futures trading (what the obtuse media call gambling) is good.
Saturday, October 14, 2006
Saturday College Football Oct. 14
There may not be a more difficult weak psychologically for a team all season than Jim Grobes Deacons leading up to this game. The absolutely devastating defeat at the hands of Clemson is more than just a single loss to drop them to 5-1; it is a crushing blow for this level of team. Now they not only have to try to regroup with a short road trip, but it is a trip to face an emerging N. C. State squad that has had a couple of extra days to prepare and using those days to review bitter memories of last years 27-19 loss at Greensboro, when they had two interceptions returned for touchdowns.
Wake Forest: 6-0 ATS in October
NC State: 16-6 Under as a home favorite
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: NC State -3; This doesn't get any better than this. Total domination by NC State. Another dent in my winning pick of the day/week column. Going big on this one.
Wake Forest: 6-0 ATS in October
NC State: 16-6 Under as a home favorite
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: NC State -3; This doesn't get any better than this. Total domination by NC State. Another dent in my winning pick of the day/week column. Going big on this one.
Friday, October 13, 2006
Picking Winners
With all due respect to Jedi, and I congratulate him on his week, lets take a good look at picking NFL winners.
It is obviously not enough to win 50% of your games (unless you are the sports book). Lets say for arguments sake we are playing at a normal sports book with a 10% vig (or juice) on your loses. What would an expected win percentage of 50% earn? Let’s use the following formula assuming a $100 bet:
(winning the bet * probability of winning) – (losing the bet * prob of losing)
(100*.5) – (110*.5) = -5 (dollars in this case… on average you should expect to lose 5 dollars)
So how much do you need to win just to break even? Let’s set this win percentage at “X”
(100*X) – (110*(1-X)) = 0
Do the math (or take my word for it), and X = 52.4%. So a winning percentage of 52.4% will equate to breaking even while covering your juice.
Now let’s think about those that claim to always win. Let’s say that someone is able to accurately predict 60% of the time. That’s 6 out of 10 winners at a consistent basis. This sounds like a fraction of what some of these guys claim, but let’s be humble with our assumptions just to prove a point. Our expected value for one week of football action is:
(100*.6) – (110*.4) = 16
Multiply this by 17 weeks in the season, plus 4 weeks of post season equals 21 times to take advantage of the 60% win percentage. This equals: 16 * 21 = 336. That is a 336% expected return on your asset over a six month time! That is insane! There are many of you reading this who understand finance. What would you do if someone claims a 336% expected return on their asset? If you had the ability to more then triple an investment wouldn’t you try? The answer is yes, leading to capital mobility on the winning side, pushing the lines toward the expected outcome of the game.
In short the market self corrects, and should render these predictions useless in a short period of time. To come up with a sustainable winning probability this high requires some serious mathematical modeling. And I don’t know for sure, but it doesn’t read to me like these guys are running any regression analysis to come to their conclusions. Again, no offense.
It is obviously not enough to win 50% of your games (unless you are the sports book). Lets say for arguments sake we are playing at a normal sports book with a 10% vig (or juice) on your loses. What would an expected win percentage of 50% earn? Let’s use the following formula assuming a $100 bet:
(winning the bet * probability of winning) – (losing the bet * prob of losing)
(100*.5) – (110*.5) = -5 (dollars in this case… on average you should expect to lose 5 dollars)
So how much do you need to win just to break even? Let’s set this win percentage at “X”
(100*X) – (110*(1-X)) = 0
Do the math (or take my word for it), and X = 52.4%. So a winning percentage of 52.4% will equate to breaking even while covering your juice.
Now let’s think about those that claim to always win. Let’s say that someone is able to accurately predict 60% of the time. That’s 6 out of 10 winners at a consistent basis. This sounds like a fraction of what some of these guys claim, but let’s be humble with our assumptions just to prove a point. Our expected value for one week of football action is:
(100*.6) – (110*.4) = 16
Multiply this by 17 weeks in the season, plus 4 weeks of post season equals 21 times to take advantage of the 60% win percentage. This equals: 16 * 21 = 336. That is a 336% expected return on your asset over a six month time! That is insane! There are many of you reading this who understand finance. What would you do if someone claims a 336% expected return on their asset? If you had the ability to more then triple an investment wouldn’t you try? The answer is yes, leading to capital mobility on the winning side, pushing the lines toward the expected outcome of the game.
In short the market self corrects, and should render these predictions useless in a short period of time. To come up with a sustainable winning probability this high requires some serious mathematical modeling. And I don’t know for sure, but it doesn’t read to me like these guys are running any regression analysis to come to their conclusions. Again, no offense.
Thursday, October 12, 2006
Thursday Night College Oct. 12
#22 Virginia Tech visits ACC Rival Boston College. Virginia Tech is off a bye following a 38-27 home loss to Georgia Tech. The Hokies beat Boston College 30-10 at home last season after the Eagles won 34-27 in Blacksburg in 2003. In the Va. Tech-Boston College match the Hokies have been holding steady as a 2.5-point road chalk.
Virginia Tech: 6-0 ATS as a road favorite
Boston College: 30-16 Under off an ATS loss
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: Virginia Tech -2.5, I'm laying it down tonight, I don't see how the heck BC is going to come up with a win tonight. VT is just set up perfect for this game. Bye, prior loss. And they play WELL on Thursday night games. -2.5 that's just a field goal. Cash it tonight GUYS!
Virginia Tech: 6-0 ATS as a road favorite
Boston College: 30-16 Under off an ATS loss
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: Virginia Tech -2.5, I'm laying it down tonight, I don't see how the heck BC is going to come up with a win tonight. VT is just set up perfect for this game. Bye, prior loss. And they play WELL on Thursday night games. -2.5 that's just a field goal. Cash it tonight GUYS!
Tuesday, October 10, 2006
When will it be time to be more bearish (again)?
I've had to listen to market bears--their cynicism, conspiracy theories, media hype, and gloom and doom (maybe it is a personality thing)--for almost the whole year, as the Dow drifted from 11,000 towards 10,000.Now that it is drifting up towards 12,000, the bears are like dried up Sea Monkeys. But when the rain comes, the brine shrimp will be back out in force.
For me, the time to get bearish again is when forward earnings come within 1% of treasury yields. Right now, treasuries are yielding close to 5% while S&P 500 earnings are yielding close to 7%. But, let's say that bonds sell off to yield 6% and large caps rally up such that forward P/E ratios are over 17 (only 15 today); then it might be the right time to start taking some profits and thinking about putting on some shorts.
But the housing contraction will not be so bad. I think that it will only affect 5% of households, while the cynics think it will affect over 20%. Now 25% of homes are owned outright, and more than 95% of mortgage holders have over 20% of their home values in equity, and most folks who rent are lower middle class--the crash will come only to homebuilders (who have inventories), greedy speculators who own more properties than they can finance, and some people who are so addicted to spending that they must immediately cash out any gains in their property valuation. Is that really one out of three or four households across America? No, it's less than one out of ten. And homebuilders are less than 3/10% of the market capitalization of the US.
And the buzz over inflation, yeah sure, the government has revised the CPI calculation so inflation doesn't look so bad as previous formulations would have concluded. But CPI also understates inflation, as is stated here, here, and here.
So, its fine to sell the rallies and buy the dips, but don't be caught short right now; rather, be flat to long. The Dow will be swooning sometime in the not too distant future, but outside of a major news event, it won't be today.
Monday, October 09, 2006
GET OUT THE DUST PAN! it's MNF Oct. 9
Unbeaten Baltimore swoops into Denver to face the 2-1 Broncos in a key Monday night match. Led by the resurgent Steve McNair the Ravens are 4-0 for the first time in franchise history. They started fast, Tampa Bay and Oakland squads by a combined 55-6 in the first two weeks. They won close ones the last two weeks. McNair hit tight end Todd Heap for a TD with 34 seconds remaining last week as the Ravens defeated San Diego 16-13. Two weeks ago, McNair directed a 12-play, 47-yard drive that resulted in Matt Stover's 52-yard field goal with 20 seconds left to beat Cleveland 15-14. Denver is in off its bye week with a 2-1 record. It has played three low-scoring games, scoring just 36 points while allowing 31.
Baltimore: 12-2 Under away vs. conference opponents
Denver: 14-4 ATS off a bye week
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: Denver - 5.5. Here we go, I personally think this game can go either way. If you like Baltimore take them straight up, but if Denver wins this game, they're taking the spread away from Baltimore a smashing them with it. I got one more team left on my parlay(waiting for Denver obviously, for a 4k hit) I favored them at 3.5 and still favor them at 5.5. Denver's to tough under the lights at home. For all that has been keeping up with me, you should already know that I had a great week, but now I need the dust pan to clean up the mess that I just swept. So let's get out the dust pan and make it a total CLEAN SWEEP!
Baltimore: 12-2 Under away vs. conference opponents
Denver: 14-4 ATS off a bye week
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: Denver - 5.5. Here we go, I personally think this game can go either way. If you like Baltimore take them straight up, but if Denver wins this game, they're taking the spread away from Baltimore a smashing them with it. I got one more team left on my parlay(waiting for Denver obviously, for a 4k hit) I favored them at 3.5 and still favor them at 5.5. Denver's to tough under the lights at home. For all that has been keeping up with me, you should already know that I had a great week, but now I need the dust pan to clean up the mess that I just swept. So let's get out the dust pan and make it a total CLEAN SWEEP!
CLEAN SWEEEEEEEP!
YEAH! I FINALLY SWEPT THE BOARD THIS WEEK! WENT 4-0 ON MY FAB FOUR PICKS (GIANTS -4.5, JACKSONVILLE -7.5, TAMPA BAY +6.5. and ARIZONA +3.5) HIT MY PICK OF THE WEEK (GIANT'S -4.5) AND MY GOYS FOR THE WEEK (A's MONEYLINE, and college PITT -7) THAT PUTS MY RECORD TO.....
JEDIMINDTRICKS RECORD
ALL NFL GAMES: 21-20
WEEKLY PICK 6: 11-5
PICK OF THE DAY/WEEK: 5-3
GOYSandTOYS: 2-0
I GOT ANOTHER GREAT PICK THIS MONDAY, STAY TUNED
JEDIMINDTRICKS RECORD
ALL NFL GAMES: 21-20
WEEKLY PICK 6: 11-5
PICK OF THE DAY/WEEK: 5-3
GOYSandTOYS: 2-0
I GOT ANOTHER GREAT PICK THIS MONDAY, STAY TUNED
Sunday, October 08, 2006
NFL Football Pick Of the Week - JMT PICK
Washington @ NY Giants
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: Giants -4.5
Washington: 25-9 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
NY Giants: 15-4 Under off a bye week
JEDI THOUGHTS: These skins are in constant struggle, REMEMBER Giants came off bye week, and prior to that, they lost against Seattle. They're pretty much prepared for this game. Also remember, Redskins just barely won against the Jag's in overtime, so i'm pretty sure these Skins are winded. Giants can be tough at home! HOPEFULLY THIS PICK WILL DENT THE WINNING COLUMN OF PICK OF THE DAY/WEEK.
JEDIMINDTRICKS RECORD
ALL NFL GAMES: 14-14
WEEKLY PICK 6: 7-5
JEDI's PODSandPOWS: 4-3, Thank You Philadelphia!
GOYSandTOYS: 2-0
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: Giants -4.5
Washington: 25-9 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
NY Giants: 15-4 Under off a bye week
JEDI THOUGHTS: These skins are in constant struggle, REMEMBER Giants came off bye week, and prior to that, they lost against Seattle. They're pretty much prepared for this game. Also remember, Redskins just barely won against the Jag's in overtime, so i'm pretty sure these Skins are winded. Giants can be tough at home! HOPEFULLY THIS PICK WILL DENT THE WINNING COLUMN OF PICK OF THE DAY/WEEK.
JEDIMINDTRICKS RECORD
ALL NFL GAMES: 14-14
WEEKLY PICK 6: 7-5
JEDI's PODSandPOWS: 4-3, Thank You Philadelphia!
GOYSandTOYS: 2-0
Friday, October 06, 2006
MLB - Game Of the Year
I usually don't post MLB (that should tell you something) I got another GOY from another fellow PREGAMEr, and i'd like to give him full credit for his pick. RONNIEDIZEL he's also a great handicapper, and I go big when it comes down to GOYs at forum.
GOY: Oakland A's; MONEYLINE
GOYs don't come very often in this blog; this is actually my second posted GOY, check out my other NCAA blog, picked by oopie
GOY: Oakland A's; MONEYLINE
GOYs don't come very often in this blog; this is actually my second posted GOY, check out my other NCAA blog, picked by oopie
NCAA Football - Game Of the Year; Oct. 7
Before I post this, i'd like to give credit to the GOYer for picking this team. I am a handicapper myself, but I usually like to pick the handicappers that are hot and ride along with them and hit it big. I'D LIKE TO THANK OOPIE (FELLOW POSTer, FIRST GOY OF THE SEASON) FOR LETTING ME POST UP HIS PICK.
GOY: Pitt-7
Don't Pass On This Oppurtunity. I haven't posted up a GOY yet, and you probably won't see much of these, so be sure to grab it while it's available.
GOY: Pitt-7
Don't Pass On This Oppurtunity. I haven't posted up a GOY yet, and you probably won't see much of these, so be sure to grab it while it's available.
Thursday, October 05, 2006
NFL Week 5, Fab Four Picks
THIS WEEK I WILL NOT BE DOING A PICK SIX THIS WEEK, THESE PICKS BELOW WILL BE TAGGED ON TO MY PICK SIX RECORD. I WILL POST MY PICK OF THE WEEK ON FRIDAY. (I NEED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF PIECES TOGETHER TO MAKE THIS GAME MY GOY) SO BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FRIDAY.
*Washington @ NY Giants - Jedi Pick: Giants -4.5
Washington: 25-9 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
NY Giants: 15-4 Under off a bye week
JEDI THOUGHTS: These skins are in constant struggle, REMEMBER Giants came off bye week, and prior to that, they lost against Seattle. They're pretty much prepared for this game. Also remember, Redskins just barely won against the Jag's in overtime, so i'm pretty sure these Skins are winded. Giants can be tough at home!
*NY Jets @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville - 7.5
NY Jets: 6-0 Under away off a loss by 6 points or less
Jacksonville: 8-2 ATS off BB road losses
JEDI THOUGHTS: Tough loss last week, he're the Jaguar prowl back! Jets for some reason kept up with the Colts, Which I find unbelieveable, well these Jags are a much better defensice team than those horses. Jacksonville will eat those Jets alive, and keep them under double digit scoring, while Jacksonville is hungry to score and win this game (after that disappointing lost)
+Tampa Bay @ New Orleans - Jedi Picks: Tampa Bay +6.5
Tampa Bay: 8-1 Under in road games
New Orleans: 17-34 ATS at home vs. division opponents
JEDI THOUGHTS: What is going on with Tampa Bay? 0-3? thank goodness they're getting alot of points here. New Orleans was dominating at home, but REMEMBER EVERYONE WAS WATCHING. IT WAS HOME OPENER, AND IT WAS MONDAY NIGHT. Who's watching this game now? it's not nationally televised that's for sure. Tampa Bay did have a bye week, and had two weeks to prepare for this game. I'm taking Gruden and a few extra points, to help out. (well actually 2 field goals and half a point)
+Kansas City @ Arizona - Jedi Pick: Arizona + 3.5
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS as a favorite
Arizona: 2-10 ATS as an underdog
JEDI THOUGTHS: Does anyone remember the opening day in Arizona agains those Niners? Yeah they won, and yeah it was only the Niners (considering the niner got humiliated by the Chiefs 41-0) Did you know that the Chiefs came off a bye week prior to that Niner game? that means they had two weeks to prepare for the skunky 49ers? But this week, those chiefs don't have a home field advantage this week. Arizona will be all over them.
*Washington @ NY Giants - Jedi Pick: Giants -4.5
Washington: 25-9 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
NY Giants: 15-4 Under off a bye week
JEDI THOUGHTS: These skins are in constant struggle, REMEMBER Giants came off bye week, and prior to that, they lost against Seattle. They're pretty much prepared for this game. Also remember, Redskins just barely won against the Jag's in overtime, so i'm pretty sure these Skins are winded. Giants can be tough at home!
*NY Jets @ Jacksonville - Jacksonville - 7.5
NY Jets: 6-0 Under away off a loss by 6 points or less
Jacksonville: 8-2 ATS off BB road losses
JEDI THOUGHTS: Tough loss last week, he're the Jaguar prowl back! Jets for some reason kept up with the Colts, Which I find unbelieveable, well these Jags are a much better defensice team than those horses. Jacksonville will eat those Jets alive, and keep them under double digit scoring, while Jacksonville is hungry to score and win this game (after that disappointing lost)
+Tampa Bay @ New Orleans - Jedi Picks: Tampa Bay +6.5
Tampa Bay: 8-1 Under in road games
New Orleans: 17-34 ATS at home vs. division opponents
JEDI THOUGHTS: What is going on with Tampa Bay? 0-3? thank goodness they're getting alot of points here. New Orleans was dominating at home, but REMEMBER EVERYONE WAS WATCHING. IT WAS HOME OPENER, AND IT WAS MONDAY NIGHT. Who's watching this game now? it's not nationally televised that's for sure. Tampa Bay did have a bye week, and had two weeks to prepare for this game. I'm taking Gruden and a few extra points, to help out. (well actually 2 field goals and half a point)
+Kansas City @ Arizona - Jedi Pick: Arizona + 3.5
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS as a favorite
Arizona: 2-10 ATS as an underdog
JEDI THOUGTHS: Does anyone remember the opening day in Arizona agains those Niners? Yeah they won, and yeah it was only the Niners (considering the niner got humiliated by the Chiefs 41-0) Did you know that the Chiefs came off a bye week prior to that Niner game? that means they had two weeks to prepare for the skunky 49ers? But this week, those chiefs don't have a home field advantage this week. Arizona will be all over them.
Wednesday, October 04, 2006
DOW.TOUCH.12000.2006 ???
I've been jammed at work like never before, but was able to stop in the Pit today during the last hour of trading. My good friends fazz, drugtest, and skoal brother all helped me celebrate my call, exactly one year ago, that the Dow might touch 12000 sometime this year. Back then, it was trading at 10800, and there was some despair and many eager bears telling me how wrong I was and how the average would be trading past 9000 down below 8000. "Buy Gold" and "Sell America" many exclaimed.
Well, after Bernanke's third (and final) rate increase early this past summer, I had just about given up on that prediction. And now we can almost taste it!
Except for the extinct bears, that is.
Monday, October 02, 2006
Monday Night NFL Oct. 2
Green Bay's Brett Favre did what he could to hype this week's Monday night contest last week when he completed 25 of 36 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-24 win over Detroit. He also ended a run of 12 straight games throwing an interception as the Packers improved to 1-2. But can he do it two weeks in a row and get the Pack to the .500 mark versus the 2-1 Philadelphia Eagles? Not likely says the pointspread, with the Eagles -10.5 at the opener and -11.5 now. The teams have met each of the past three regulars seasons and once in the playoffs with the Eagles going 4-0 straight-up and 3-1 ATS. Two meetings in Philly the past two seasons resulted in 47-14 and 19-14 Eagles wins and covers with them favored by 6.5 then four points
Green Bay: 7-2 ATS after gaining 300+ passing yards
Philadelphia: 6-1 Under after scoring 30+ points
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: EAGLES -11.5 TAKING EAGLES ALL THE WAY BABY! THIS IS THE GAME THAT WILL BOOST MY RECORD; ANOTHER TONY BRUNO PICK TODAY. AND IS ACTUALLY A GOY FOR HIM. BUT WE'LL SEE! HOPING TO CASH THIS ONE. OR WILL BE A MAJOR BLOW TO MY RECORD. MAKE SURE YOU BE BACK NEXT WEEK I GOT SOME GREAT BEST BET PICKS ONE NFL AND ONE COLLEGE GAME (that i've been scouting out for this whole season.)
TOOK A BREAK LAST WEEK, BECAUSE I WAS GETTING SMASHED! I THOUGHT I'D NEED A LITTLE BREAK, I WILL BE POSTING WEEK 5's PICKS THIS WEEK
JEDIMINDTRICKS RECORD
ALL NFL GAMES: 14-14
WEEKLY PICK 6: 7-5
PICK OF THE DAY/WEEK: 3-3 OUCH!
Green Bay: 7-2 ATS after gaining 300+ passing yards
Philadelphia: 6-1 Under after scoring 30+ points
JEDIMINDTRICKS PICK OF THE DAY: EAGLES -11.5 TAKING EAGLES ALL THE WAY BABY! THIS IS THE GAME THAT WILL BOOST MY RECORD; ANOTHER TONY BRUNO PICK TODAY. AND IS ACTUALLY A GOY FOR HIM. BUT WE'LL SEE! HOPING TO CASH THIS ONE. OR WILL BE A MAJOR BLOW TO MY RECORD. MAKE SURE YOU BE BACK NEXT WEEK I GOT SOME GREAT BEST BET PICKS ONE NFL AND ONE COLLEGE GAME (that i've been scouting out for this whole season.)
TOOK A BREAK LAST WEEK, BECAUSE I WAS GETTING SMASHED! I THOUGHT I'D NEED A LITTLE BREAK, I WILL BE POSTING WEEK 5's PICKS THIS WEEK
JEDIMINDTRICKS RECORD
ALL NFL GAMES: 14-14
WEEKLY PICK 6: 7-5
PICK OF THE DAY/WEEK: 3-3 OUCH!
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