Tuesday, March 02, 2010

Morning IM chat with my favorite broker

Favorite Broker: got your card - thanks - very nice picture and letter
me: ha
Favorite Broker: i'm serious
me: i'm about halfway done

Favorite Broker: a little too much "God" in there, but very nice nevertheless
Favorite Broker: for me
me: pascal's wager
me: can't have too much
me: can have too much of a wrong interpretation

Favorite Broker: what confuses me is how does pascal's wager relate to you?
Favorite Broker: you don't appear to be hedging your bets - you believe
me: it relates to anyone
Favorite Broker: as far as i can tell 100%

me: its more game theory than a single trade
me: you need to look at upside/downside of each node in the space
me: how do you stop out if you're wrong? that's the point, you can't

Favorite Broker: i eat odd numbers of large vegetables
Favorite Broker: been doing it since i was young
Favorite Broker: i still do it

me: yes, you are too superstitious right now to look at the wager
me: maybe someday
Favorite Broker: the wager, as it applies to those who doubt his existence leads to superstition

me: i agree with one thing [warren] buffet said yesterday: if the doctor said eating only asparagus and broccoli would extend my life by a year, i wouldn't do it
me: it's ok to doubt. but to be balanced, you need to doubt your doubts

me: i'm glad you're not drunk; it's so much harder when you are
Favorite Broker: how do you know i am not drunk
Favorite Broker: that was a bad joke
me: b/c you are trying to build your business, which means sober until the close, and then drink enough with other professionals so that everyone reveals more of their true self
Favorite Broker: lol

me: there are behavioral studies
me: drinking enhances trust
me: a teetotaler has something to hide, apparently

Favorite Broker: to you, god exists, there is no doubt. right?
me: of course there is doubt, on a certain level
me: what happens where emprics end?
Favorite Broker: clearly, but its pretty close to 100% right?
me: that's where faith begins
me: data and science are part of the visible realm, and then there needs to be some type of lens for the invisible realm. induction complements deduction

UPDATE: Scott Adams in a similar oeuvre:
A Muslim, a Christian, and a crazy guy walk into a room. The one thing you can know for sure is that at least two out of three of them organize their lives around things that aren't real. And that's the best case scenario. Atheists would say all three have some explaining to do. And atheists are the minority, which is the very definition of abnormal.

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