from Jim Manzi (via TigerHawk)
Thursday, May 08, 2008
Tom Maguire is casting McCain as Maximus, and on the fence with who gets to be Commodus
I don't want to cast Barack as Commodus. But Russell Crowe as John McCain as the Gladiator is a lay-up:On the other hand, rapsmith thinks death might not be a bad thing.Commodus: The general who became a slave. The slave who became a gladiator. The gladiator who defied an emperor. Striking story! But now, the people want to know how the story ends. Only a famous death will do. And what could be more glorious than to challenge the Emperor himself in the great arena?
Maximus: You would fight me?
Commodus: Why not? Do you think I am afraid?
Maximus: I think you've been afraid all your life.The scene continued:
Maximus: I knew a man once who said, "Death smiles at us all. All a man can do is smile back."
Commodus: I wonder, did your friend smile at his own death?
Maximus: You must know. He was your father.
Commodus: You loved my father, I know. But so did I. That makes us brothers, doesn't it? Smile for me now, brother.
[stabs him]Hmm, Hillary could be Commodus... This is tricky - she has the endless ambition, but I don't think she has a fearful inner core, which Obama, the life-long conciliator, might. Developing...
I'm retiring the Intrade nomination charts
and replacing them with the Presidential Election Winner chart, over on the right border.
Here's where we finished up:
Here's where we finished up:
New and improved Bikini Statistics
over at Megan McArdle's. (Sorry readers, no picture included).
Post 1: an introduction to Elizabeth Warren and her statistical foolery
Post 2: reports of the savings death of the middle class are highly exaggerated
Post 3: reports of the debt drowning of the middle class are highly exaggerated
Previous BS installment here.
Post 1: an introduction to Elizabeth Warren and her statistical foolery
Post 2: reports of the savings death of the middle class are highly exaggerated
Post 3: reports of the debt drowning of the middle class are highly exaggerated
Previous BS installment here.
Statistics are like a bikini. What they present is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital--Aaron Levenstein
Buffett and Munger should hire Andrew Clavell
Here's why.
Of course, following through with Clavell's recommendations would include adding over-the-counter balance sheet elements complete with credit exposure, tranforming Berkshire into an entity that Buffett would not want to buy or hold ...
Of course, following through with Clavell's recommendations would include adding over-the-counter balance sheet elements complete with credit exposure, tranforming Berkshire into an entity that Buffett would not want to buy or hold ...
The Minsky Theory
in its simplest form:
Stability is destabilizing.The 3 phases of Minsky's process are: Hedge (most stable), Speculative, and Ponzi (least stable). The whole writeup by Thomas Tan is here.
Feud between ex-Bear Stearns CEOs
as written by Landon Thomas (via Felix Salmon):
While Mr. Cayne has always given Mr. Greenberg credit for his contributions to the firm, he has poked fun at his offbeat personality, including his nickname, Ace, which Mr. Cayne makes a point never to use. He has a standing order among some of his closer associates: Anyone who uses the name Ace in his presence owes Mr. Cayne $100.
The final straw for Mr. Cayne was Mr. Greenberg’s decision to charge Mr. Cayne a commission of $77,000 for the sale of his six million shares of Bear stock, a rate far above the maximum $2,500 commission that employees pay for a single trade. Since Mr. Cayne was not an employee anymore, he did not deserve such a rate, Mr. Greenberg said. “If he doesn’t like it, he should do his future business elsewhere,” he added.
Compounding Mr. Cayne’s ire, say people who have spoken with him, is the question of why Mr. Greenberg, who served as chairman of Bear’s risk and executive committees during the period in which the firm’s exposure to subprime mortgages hit its peak, has himself escaped censure.
That Mr. Greenberg now claims that his warnings went unheeded has driven Mr. Cayne to further distraction, these people say. One member of the executive committee said that Mr. Greenberg, as a longtime director, had ample opportunity to voice concerns about Bear’s vast exposure to subprime mortgages and its hedging strategies, which he did not do.
More corruption mongering at the World Bank
On April 21, the bank released the findings of a corruption probe into a $100 million "demobilization and reintegration" scheme in the Democratic Republic of Congo, which uncovered "sufficient evidence to substantiate allegations of fraud, corruption and disallowed expenses." The very next day, April 22, the bank announced that it had approved an additional $50 million grant for – drumroll, please – the same "demobilization and reintegration" scheme in the Democratic Republic of Congo.
This two-step is worth pondering as the World Bank struggles to implement a credible anticorruption strategy. On Monday, the bank announced the appointment of South Africa's Leonard McCarthy to lead the bank's internal anticorruption unit, known as INT. Mr. McCarthy, who previously led the (now disbanded) "Scorpions" anticorruption unit that investigated bribery allegations involving ANC leader Jacob Zuma, has a reputation for political courage that he will need in his new job.
Previous post on World Bank corruption here.
State Department excludes its own verification department
How rich:
The State Department's systematic exclusion of its own Bureau of Verification, Compliance and Implementation has gone unreported as the North Korean diplomacy proceeds. But it is causing concern on Capitol Hill and has already led to a proposal to require State to submit a report to Congress describing how the U.S. will verify any nuclear deal.
The mandate of the verification bureau, as described on the State Department's Web site, is to provide oversight "on all matters relating to verification or compliance with international arms control, nonproliferation and disarmament agreements and commitments." It "supports the Secretary" in "developing and implementing robust and rigorous verification and compliance policies."
The verification bureau was created by a Republican Congress in 1999 over the objections of the Clinton Administration and State Department careerists who didn't want agreements subject to additional oversight. The bureau's biggest success to date is Libya, where it played a central role in dismantling the country's WMD programs in 2003.
North Korea is a different story. The verifiers "have no voice so far," one person close to the process told us. They aren't part of the negotiating teams talking to the North Koreans and they've been excluded from key internal meetings. No one from the verification bureau participated in a recent State Department trip to Pyonygang intended to work out verification issues.
Quotes of the day
A fine is a tax for doing wrong. A tax is a fine for doing well.--anon
We disapprove of state education. Then the socialists say that we are opposed to any education. We object to a state religion. Then the socialists say that we want no religion at all. We object to a state-enforced equality. Then they say that we are against equality. And so on, and so on. It is as if the socialists were to accuse us of not wanting persons to eat because we do not want the state to raise grain.--Frédéric Bastiat
Much of "journalism" these days seems to involve deciding what we shouldn't be told.--Glenn Reynolds
Frank Thomas: an All Star spot to recognize his steroid-free career?
No, something better:
The Baseball Writers Association of America has drawn a line in the sand and told Mark McGwire he cannot pass. Your view on their rationale may vary but the best way for reward Thomas for doing the right thing is to assure that he gets into Cooperstown on the first ballot. If players like McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro and Barry Bonds are forced to wait their turn and watch from afar while Thomas gives his speech it will mean much more than one All-Star game that, quite frankly, he doesn't deserve to be part of.
Wednesday, May 07, 2008
Quotes of the day
What do Americans care most about this election season? The troubled housing market, and the short supply of oil. That's why Hillary is here with a plan. Specifically, a plan to discourage investment in the oil industry through a windfall profits tax, and to destroy the mortgage market by freezing foreclosures and interest rates. That way, no one has to worry about oil or houses, because there won't be any to worry about. That's just the kind of thoughtful, caring politician she is.--Megan McArdle
Adjusting for both increased fuel efficiency and the significant increases in income since 1980, gas today is a bargain, even at $3.56 per gallon (price I paid today in Michigan).--Mark Perry
The media promised a depression and all we got was yet another lousy quarter of economic expansion--Ken Braun
DISCLOSURE: I am short US.RECESSION.08
Megan McArdle and Arnold Kling explain why suspending the gas tax does nothing for the consumer
Megan McArdle likes to tell a story with charts.
I like to tell it this way. There is a wholesale market for gasoline, and there is a retail market for gasoline. Gas stations buy in the wholesale market and sell in the retail market, with essentially no profit margin.
If I'm a gas station selling for $3.18 a gallon, the instant that the tax is cut by $.18 I have an $.18 profit margin. That is not going to last. It is going to be competed away.
I might try to lower my price and sell more gas. If every gas station does this, then the price goes down and the consumer benefits. But in order to get more gas, I have to bid for it in the wholesale market. And we can't get more gas out of the wholesale market, because for the next few months the supply is essentially fixed. So what's actually going to happen is that the gas stations are going to bid up the price of gas on the wholesale market. In fact, this process is going to reach a point where in order just to keep my share of gas, I'll have to bid higher by $.18. The net result is that more money goes to refiners, my gas station pays less in taxes, but we pay more for gasoline wholesale, and the consumer gets no benefit.
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